Asian League · resolved market
Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f4290e66044a6d7d8c54df505ffab1be17c7d254db36e3f5033355ece375b75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 12c | 19,230$2,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,307.61 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | +17.3wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Over | 20c | 4,714$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.39 | 127 | 41.7%53 W · 74 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 18c | 3,752$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.33 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…ad4bbacked Over | 20c | 2,490$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 17c | 999.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Over | 24c | 867.89$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.65 | 243 | 23%56 W · 187 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Over | 20c | 591.96$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.39 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Under | 48c | 543.51$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.86 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 78c | 543.39$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.35 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Over | 20c | 502.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 108 | 23.1%25 W · 83 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Over | 20c | 459.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 76c | 458.27$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.79 | 693 | 52.2%362 W · 331 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…c01dbacked Over | 40c | 375.2$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…3e2dbacked Over | 16c | 331.05$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 72c | 312.21$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 74c | 307.28$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.17 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…df80backed Under | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 80c | 213.6$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…4697backed Under | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.05 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Over | 22c | 198.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Over | 15c | 166.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 188 | 38.8%73 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Under | 78c | 153.71$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 126 | 52.4%66 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 21c | 144.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.98 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x268c…19aabacked Over | 27c | 144.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…2cabbacked Over | 20c | 143.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16e5…6373backed Over | 37c | 130$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 53c | 109.61$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.03 | 471 | 55.8%263 W · 208 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 14c | 85.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Under | 80c | 83.65$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 137 | 46.7%64 W · 73 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d78…7b8dbacked Under | 72c | 71.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 76c | 56.74$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 154 | 70.8%109 W · 45 L | +16.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xecda…6f0abacked Under | 79c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65af…df77backed Under | 65c | 30.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2102…087dbacked Under | 66c | 30.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…80b4backed Under | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4db3…c1eabacked Under | 75c | 18.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | +9.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Under | 79c | 17.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 119 | 31.9%38 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…e307backed Under | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…e96abacked Under | 79c | 12.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Henan FC (-1.5)Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC won
- Spread: Henan FC (-2.5)Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC won
- Spread: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC (-1.5)Henan FC won
- Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Henan FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.