Fifa International · resolved market
Spain vs. Serbia: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f4ad48fde498396483cfa3959da2f21709dc004817e3aa88b75c55152b8169c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,104
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,104 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 20c | 15,073$3,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,045.91 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…d4bfbacked Over | 79c | 10,126$7,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,126.44 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 22c | 1,594$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.89 | 508 | 50%254 W · 254 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 21c | 1,453$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.22 | 864 | 55.3%478 W · 386 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 16c | 755.59$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.29 | 740 | 34.1%252 W · 488 L | -36.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 21c | 669.48$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.91 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 40c | 580$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 293 | 43%126 W · 167 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 22c | 551.27$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.88 | 237 | 49.8%118 W · 119 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe474…5bedbacked Over | 66c | 348.48$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 65c | 269.16$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.15 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…e639backed Over | 75c | 267$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.75 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6081…f0f2backed Over | 79c | 227.33$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.74 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 20c | 194.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3a…265ebacked Over | 80c | 166.08$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d83…272cbacked Over | 71c | 154.93$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Over | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d8c…35b0backed Over | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 30c | 107.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 71c | 101.09$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 308 | 36%111 W · 197 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5631…bd3abacked Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 80c | 93.75$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2502…87e5backed Under | 21c | 92.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 66c | 86$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +8.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 69c | 85.16$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 356 | 58.7%209 W · 147 L | +35.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 504 | 50.2%253 W · 251 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 26c | 78.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 341 | 44.3%151 W · 190 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x125f…b7e8backed Over | 74c | 78.45$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 62cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 200 | 67.5%135 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe972…8004backed Under | 30c | 66.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…6d97backed Over | 68c | 64.31$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5833…4893backed Over | 80c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 81 | 70.4%57 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 28c | 61.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 407 | 36.6%149 W · 258 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 76c | 54.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 1,559 | 52.4%817 W · 742 L | +97.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4af4…f9e0backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4626…d40bbacked Over | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 31c | 32.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 61c | 25.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2912…6817backed Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x604e…f1cdbacked Over | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b03…b766backed Over | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Over | 78c | 13.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spain vs. Serbia: O/U 2.5this page
- Spain vs. Serbia: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Spain vs. Serbia: O/U 1.5Over won
- Spain vs. Serbia: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spain vs. Serbia: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Spain (-1.5)Spain won
- Spread: Spain (-2.5)Spain won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.