Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Spain (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42e4386e2d6b359eeffea8b6853effcf44ac3b2ac01fc0b55f1d2411569e9207
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spainof Spain, Serbia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Serbia | 32c | 2,527$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.48 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x955f…2a6fbacked Spain | 61c | 1,320$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.92 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Serbia | 4c | 649.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 740 | 34.1%252 W · 488 L | -36.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…8982backed Spain | 61c | 401.74$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.68 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Spain | 77c | 389.61$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.61 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Serbia | 16c | 356.31$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b1…c764backed Spain | 63c | 199.98$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.99 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Serbia | 19c | 181.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa334…beaebacked Serbia | 36c | 149.26$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…77d4backed Spain | 79c | 126.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Serbia | 35c | 76.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa431…bd20backed Spain | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Spain | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Spain | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Serbia | 38c | 45.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 508 | 50%254 W · 254 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Serbia | 38c | 45.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 237 | 49.8%118 W · 119 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Spain | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 200 | 67.5%135 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…b81bbacked Spain | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 34 | 88.2%30 W · 4 L | +6.3wins | +0.18per pick | 70cpaid | +31%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…0852backed Spain | 71c | 22.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…c65dbacked Spain | 71c | 22.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd5…25b0backed Spain | 64c | 20.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…2777backed Spain | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -6.7wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2a…4e1fbacked Spain | 62c | 17.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc119…7d4dbacked Spain | 64c | 17.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Spain (-1.5)this page
- Spain vs. Serbia: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Spain vs. Serbia: O/U 1.5Over won
- Spain vs. Serbia: O/U 2.5Over won
- Spain vs. Serbia: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spain vs. Serbia: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Spain (-2.5)Spain won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.