Premier League · resolved market
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f522280b1108d8a60f79e02c97b71fa55f915917db5265550c02536ceee9ea6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 26c | 7,711$2,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,002.64 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 68c | 6,701$4,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,152.64 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66f…a19bbacked No | 78c | 3,384$2,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.59 | 420 | 43.8%184 W · 236 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95a9…4352backed No | 74c | 3,177$2,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.04 | 38 | 81.6%31 W · 7 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 68cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…9c28backed No | 74c | 2,725$2,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.59 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f6…3149backed Yes | 12c | 2,595$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 18c | 2,537$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.6 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 5c | 2,329$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.49 | 287 | 36.2%104 W · 183 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…cc08backed Yes | 49c | 1,822$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21e6…cbd8backed No | 73c | 1,626$1,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.81 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Yes | 27c | 1,582$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 354 | 28.5%101 W · 253 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…5e64backed Yes | 51c | 1,401$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.77 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 26c | 1,366$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.22 | 850 | 48.4%411 W · 439 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcddb…0d22backed No | 74c | 1,361$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.92 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 15c | 1,016$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.77 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Yes | 33c | 844$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.52 | 233 | 50.2%117 W · 116 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…37f8backed Yes | 14c | 717.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Yes | 48c | 541.67$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 722 | 49.9%360 W · 362 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 197 | 32.5%64 W · 133 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x583f…2dabbacked Yes | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +210.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 74c | 422.42$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.88 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4c…8138backed Yes | 42c | 324$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.08 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…d25abacked Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked No | 74c | 312.37$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.02 | 149 | 75.8%113 W · 36 L | +26.0wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdb…8417backed Yes | 27c | 299.9$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.87 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd1…ec0ebacked Yes | 28c | 275.89$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.15 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe822…f89fbacked No | 74c | 228.36$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.37 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 22c | 220.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0abd…7207backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 12cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 44c | 196$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.24 | 413 | 44.8%185 W · 228 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Yes | 27c | 166.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 162 | 33.3%54 W · 108 L | -14.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Yes | 26c | 149.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1022…cfeebacked Yes | 28c | 143.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 50c | 141.97$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.98 | 451 | 42.6%192 W · 259 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…4488backed Yes | 32c | 140.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55e4…f67dbacked Yes | 44c | 136.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d0…26c7backed Yes | 24c | 134.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 181 | 24.9%45 W · 136 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…9c6dbacked Yes | 21c | 121.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +122.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 32c | 112.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb269…6adebacked Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 11c | 109.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 452 | 24.8%112 W · 340 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 596 | 45.5%271 W · 325 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace9…f74abacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce11…4a49backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9078backed No | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd480…799ebacked Yes | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeba…f7d9backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed No | 73c | 77.8$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…8f69backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 36c | 75.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Yes | 28c | 71.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 59.8%49 W · 33 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 28c | 71.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 74c | 62.68$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 827 | 63%521 W · 306 L | +113.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…1973backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 33c | 54.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed Yes | 26c | 52.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 212 | 50.9%108 W · 104 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 773 | 36.4%281 W · 492 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 25c | 44.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -17.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 27c | 37.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 73c | 30.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 399 | 48.4%193 W · 206 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 72c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 73c | 20.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 194 | 55.2%107 W · 87 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 73c | 14.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 271 | 73.8%200 W · 71 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 76cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aston Villa FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-14?No won
- Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.