NFL · resolved market
Seahawks vs. Rams: O/U 48.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f64f8468ddddc605f4a37de7759029ffd448c5a9454f8dcbd59126e65a1a8b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 52c | 21,582$11,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,195.19 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Under | 48c | 16,000$7,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,320 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 50c | 15,000$7,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,549.99 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 50c | 9,375$4,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,687.5 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 49c | 6,000$2,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,060 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 51c | 5,045$2,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,574.24 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 50c | 1,211$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.74 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed Over | 53c | 1,170$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.1 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6d…1ba1backed Over | 51c | 1,078$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 47c | 1,054$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.65 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 51c | 770$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.7 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 51c | 500$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.8 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…2e41backed Under | 48c | 483.33$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.33 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 116 | 40.5%47 W · 69 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked Over | 52c | 270$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.4 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Under | 49c | 249.99$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Under | 48c | 199.98$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.99 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Over | 51c | 198.62$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.3 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x114a…8aa2backed Under | 48c | 164.97$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.97 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Under | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 47c | 106.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…0b36backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4b…ec5ebacked Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3f…4f9cbacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 114 | 58.8%67 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 48c | 90.03$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.82 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…a7fcbacked Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Under | 48c | 76.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b7d4backed Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0165…2281backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Over | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecb…87ddbacked Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32da…b112backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +6.1wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…3702backed Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c52…ff83backed Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +7.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e76…ee47backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seahawks vs. Rams: O/U 48.5this page
- Seahawks vs. RamsRams won
- Seahawks vs. Rams: 1H O/U 24.5Under won
- Seahawks vs. Rams: O/U 47.5Under won
- Seahawks vs. Rams: O/U 49.5Under won
- Spread: Rams (-2.5)Seahawks won
- Spread: Rams (-3.5)Seahawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.