Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or higher on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f7c4a575cac661e2a10dc90e48fe9ee2d45b41c90f536fe3c3462702f8b4fe1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,048
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,048 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf28f…841abacked No | 63c | 278.34$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.56 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 15c | 273$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 30c | 139.09$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.43 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 73c | 132.79$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 90 | 17.8%16 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 74c | 130$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 26c | 114.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.21 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 106.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…87a6backed No | 67c | 104.48$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 100.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.74 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 45c | 91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 36c | 85.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 39c | 83.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 62c | 81.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa223…0894backed Yes | 26c | 80.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.37 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 33c | 79.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.24 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbba2…e5b5backed No | 71c | 69.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked Yes | 70c | 69.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…58f9backed Yes | 73c | 68.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 48c | 60.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…ee99backed No | 69c | 58.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…85f7backed Yes | 55c | 55.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fb…cbc4backed No | 39c | 50.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 39c | 48.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 59c | 47.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 47.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d34…cd67backed No | 59c | 47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 33c | 45.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 41c | 43.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 47c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 37c | 42.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 39c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…13c1backed No | 68c | 39.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 34c | 39.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…3b66backed No | 80c | 38.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 39c | 38.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…7f5abacked No | 43c | 38.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 42c | 38.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 67c | 36.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 41c | 36.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 36.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…4e9abacked Yes | 70c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 74c | 35.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 71c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…173ebacked Yes | 56c | 33.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 33c | 33.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 45c | 33.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf9…5211backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed Yes | 72c | 27.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 54c | 25.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 53c | 25.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe0…4014backed Yes | 58c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…7d44backed No | 56c | 23.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed No | 66c | 22.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 116 | 70.7%82 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 53c | 22.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 66c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d4…0a37backed Yes | 58c | 17.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 72c | 17.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe61…e9c2backed No | 75c | 14.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 73 | 84.9%62 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or higher on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.