Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f9358ff479c162836a1f7eb3cddc5ce49e547d5bfa83e41577750e98d80c4b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,300
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,419
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,300 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 38c | 648.28$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.28 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 62c | 645.4$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.4 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 58c | 500$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.01 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 25c | 386.71$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.72 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 76c | 358.72$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.57 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 19c | 263.05$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.93 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 16c | 256.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 14c | 229.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 39c | 199.8$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.92 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 36c | 194.26$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.96 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 21c | 174.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 9c | 150.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 76c | 149.67$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 73c | 120$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 13c | 109.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 34c | 103.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 40c | 99.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 31c | 91.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 17c | 86.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 18c | 85.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 41c | 78.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 39c | 56.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 73c | 51.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 40c | 50.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 66c | 49.95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 39c | 47.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 34c | 40.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 37c | 38.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb7…4eaebacked No | 36c | 36.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 35c | 36.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 70c | 35.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 38c | 33.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 61c | 32.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2350…a351backed Yes | 65c | 30.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 77c | 26.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…0ad4backed Yes | 65c | 21.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5d…f085backed Yes | 76c | 20.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 73c | 20.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…a96dbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 61c | 19.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…121fbacked Yes | 72c | 16.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.