Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on December 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f946bb5f10fa66907886e8b129d9b891e30eaf37543b84f9ad30a38e4d8bf89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,524
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,524 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 15c | 1,050$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,044$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.21 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed No | 75c | 868.45$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.94 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 26c | 843.4$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.07 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…f204backed Yes | 15c | 600$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +17.9wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 4c | 556.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 5c | 476.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd08c…748cbacked No | 75c | 411.65$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.2 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 14c | 400.6$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.57 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc14d…f137backed Yes | 23c | 359.5$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 11c | 291.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 14c | 249.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x549a…71d0backed Yes | 17c | 237.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 15c | 229.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x227f…41e3backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 71c | 193.57$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.51 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6167…8533backed Yes | 30c | 167.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec2…8ff4backed Yes | 24c | 145.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 31c | 133.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…c6debacked Yes | 13c | 130$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…3a22backed Yes | 14c | 128.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 13c | 99.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 17c | 94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…9adbbacked Yes | 20c | 81.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0f67…fd6fbacked Yes | 31c | 64.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d4…ca86backed Yes | 32c | 62.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…fc73backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…09ddbacked Yes | 24c | 59.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…6732backed Yes | 27c | 51.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 48.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x126d…cfc5backed Yes | 27c | 40.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 67c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked No | 73c | 29.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe353…d040backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a5…8e69backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 72c | 20.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5222…d2f6backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc1…fdc6backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on December 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on December 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on December 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or higher on December 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C or below on December 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on December 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on December 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.