Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fa008ae528d74fa0d1c1bf6f627e9ea600cae179ca1f0c1abc7906517527806
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,724
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,724 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 50c | 304.58$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.62 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 35c | 240.24$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.9 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 191.96$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 162.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 159.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed No | 74c | 158.63$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.93 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 19c | 134.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 30c | 131.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 8c | 126.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked Yes | 17c | 109.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 68c | 102.38$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 101.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7968…615abacked No | 61c | 96.08$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.68 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 74c | 91.48$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 61c | 82.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 75c | 76.25$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 21c | 73.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f76…ec51backed Yes | 19c | 60.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x054c…0a1abacked No | 77c | 59.11$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 65c | 57.18$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 55.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…9326backed No | 80c | 53.89$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae71…9750backed No | 60c | 48.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 23c | 48.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 58c | 43.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 36c | 38.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 39c | 38.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 52c | 37.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 36c | 35.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 41c | 33.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 41c | 32.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 77c | 32.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 62c | 31.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2427…52a2backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 43c | 29.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 53c | 29.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 77c | 25.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 62c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 63c | 21.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 20.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 19.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a77…50e6backed No | 60c | 17.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5d…adc4backed No | 72c | 15.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 88°F or higher on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 70-71°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on April 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.