Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa01d90fe411672e3afe37d3edcefdc2fba85f9ae5f4bb7f5fd9631e8df5836b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,319
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,319 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbdda…2408backed No | 2c | 1,131$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 2cpaid | +1,566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…0de9backed No | 40c | 700$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 60c | 478.14$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.25 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 38c | 465.96$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.79 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 62c | 440.32$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.32 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked No | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 61c | 250$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e46…e394backed Yes | 63c | 159.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.48 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed No | 39c | 151$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.63 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed No | 28c | 147.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Yes | 61c | 98.02$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.02 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 38c | 80.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 62c | 80.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa23f…a64ebacked Yes | 62c | 75.77$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…3105backed No | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 27c | 62.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Yes | 62c | 51.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…e7fbbacked Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Yes | 62c | 46.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 70c | 44.14$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c66…5ab3backed Yes | 61c | 32.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…d343backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 40c | 31.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed No | 40c | 26.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…4f62backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -5.5wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Yes | 60c | 21.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked Yes | 60c | 19.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Yes | 62c | 18.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5Over won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.