Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf52e39056b52de23474c822ccddc53afebcd71f0c6483939cae3e0f57de770f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,748
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,748 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 10c | 8,488$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.81 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 65c | 7,736$5,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,733.28 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 35c | 2,414$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.94 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 35c | 1,945$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.65 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 36c | 1,784$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.13 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a95…2b65backed Under | 11c | 1,701$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5849…dcf1backed Under | 37c | 1,171$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.22 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 35c | 801.52$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.53 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…02c6backed Over | 64c | 625$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 65c | 615.38$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.38 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 62c | 504.66$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.66 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Under | 31c | 500$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 35c | 464.7$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.84 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…a81bbacked Under | 5c | 312$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 36c | 269.25$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.93 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 7c | 267.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57c6…fde6backed Under | 22c | 237.91$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 77c | 209.34$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.68 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Under | 36c | 180$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69dd…1964backed Over | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 35c | 146.14$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 36c | 138.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef5…0366backed Under | 37c | 136.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 80c | 134.38$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…eb3cbacked Under | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…e7fbbacked Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc4…3479backed Over | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed Under | 36c | 87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Over | 64c | 78.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf39…0e83backed Over | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55e4…f67dbacked Over | 64c | 77.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 65c | 77.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcc…161dbacked Over | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Over | 65c | 46.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9184…6048backed Over | 64c | 31.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd033…033dbacked Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc253…5800backed Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +25%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48e2…2a5fbacked Under | 38c | 30.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 36c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…3243backed Over | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 27 | 85.2%23 W · 4 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 69cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ef…0b77backed Over | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 68cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b91…27dcbacked Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5this page
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5Over won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.