Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3180bf4afc7684d28bc16d40c2753a18795902f532b6a814ede776aa4a96b8f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 34c | 10,274$3,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,490.41 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 60c | 5,000$2,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000.46 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Over | 50c | 2,190$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 21c | 2,184$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.27 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 42c | 1,636$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.19 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 35c | 1,135$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.32 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x598b…f296backed Under | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 68c | 882.35$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.35 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42d…b35cbacked Over | 80c | 725$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d98…84cabacked Under | 9c | 648.89$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.58 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e73…c4ecbacked Over | 50c | 637.66$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.47 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +287.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 34c | 600$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa486…25d4backed Over | 52c | 600$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…87acbacked Under | 36c | 555.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…2deabacked Under | 49c | 553$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.22 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 25c | 400.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.2 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 57c | 359.99$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.8 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 55c | 329.15$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.88 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3b…6ba5backed Over | 48c | 314$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.22 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 23cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 65c | 250$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.85 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73e…43f1backed Over | 67c | 223.88$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 33c | 216.22$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.67 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 23c | 213.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.38 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 53c | 210$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.3 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Over | 22c | 204.96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 25c | 200.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.21 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 48c | 195.36$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.3 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | +10.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 37c | 172.56$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.52 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Under | 24c | 166.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Over | 64c | 165.39$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.54 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 36c | 149$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.67 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 58c | 143.06$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.09 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Under | 77c | 136$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.72 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 68c | 135$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.82 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 75c | 132$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 58c | 125.3$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 121 | 62.8%76 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Under | 65c | 120$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 72c | 115.38$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 51c | 114.93$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4208…13febacked Under | 27c | 111.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…d343backed Under | 27c | 104.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 36c | 104.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Under | 56c | 102$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa12c…b9ecbacked Under | 14c | 100.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55e4…f67dbacked Under | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…798abacked Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 50c | 92$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.98 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 67c | 86.57$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 54c | 86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…1809backed Under | 16c | 82.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…3af6backed Over | 75c | 81.03$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 56c | 73$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 27c | 70.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0d…9f26backed Under | 30c | 70.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf270…6015backed Under | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x267f…9ce8backed Under | 21c | 65.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Over | 49c | 65.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 77c | 64.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 79c | 59.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 36 | 88.9%32 W · 4 L | +8.1wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 23c | 58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 47c | 55.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2321…6a04backed Over | 79c | 55.45$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Under | 27c | 42.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +815.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1466…3bfbbacked Under | 27c | 42.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7569…ac76backed Under | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 108 | 63%68 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f77…f9a7backed Over | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 76c | 29.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 76c | 28.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5683…3ea1backed Over | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Over | 60c | 23.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.32per pick | 57cpaid | +57%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 66c | 17.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Under | 77c | 15.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4a…7bd0backed Over | 74c | 15.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5this page
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.