Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x726f959050e11e0719d1c32fe609ed3e7f227c28beb6d2de762899fe3ddc8583
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 4,917$2,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,491.9 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Over | 43c | 1,200$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.05 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Over | 42c | 1,073$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.18 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Over | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 57c | 599.77$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.56 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 57c | 510.82$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.34 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 8c | 495.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x782e…b317backed Under | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 24c | 197.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 42c | 190.71$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.71 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 31c | 190.69$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca61…f06abacked Over | 41c | 144$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.96 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef5…0366backed Over | 41c | 121.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x036c…178dbacked Under | 58c | 120$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d7…2b16backed Under | 58c | 116.79$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Over | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Under | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 42c | 85.71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.71 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 59c | 84.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 62c | 80.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 65c | 77.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 61c | 76.09$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Over | 43c | 69.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2a…e715backed Over | 42c | 58.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +121.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1193…e998backed Over | 42c | 57.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…cc04backed Over | 72c | 51.51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c66…5ab3backed Over | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 43c | 46.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…9e5fbacked Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 39c | 40.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked Under | 58c | 39.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ef…8e6fbacked Over | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 44c | 36.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 40c | 32.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 44c | 31.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 57c | 30.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 60c | 29.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 121 | 62.8%76 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Under | 57c | 29.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13b5…2c2cbacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 60c | 24.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02f4…4effbacked Under | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 58c | 21.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 59c | 21.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 71c | 21.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 58c | 20.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5this page
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.