Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0290311b990e1b5c1539277ae6ea0e80a543c7697d8221db14379e4c06ccb2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,575
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,429
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,575 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 56c | 1,945$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.37 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 47c | 642.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.11 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 628.45$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 43c | 593.7$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.95 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 46c | 408.54$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.89 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 355.02$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.83 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x040b…bbc5backed Yes | 23c | 335.48$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.72 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 41c | 307.72$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.96 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 49c | 272.54$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.75 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 18c | 268.94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 38c | 252.86$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.77 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 9c | 208$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 205.2$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.38 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 44c | 169.37$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.06 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 14c | 168.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 146.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.2 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked Yes | 38c | 144.48$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.48 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 59c | 140.74$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.53 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 22c | 137.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.57 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 44c | 136.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.25 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 58c | 136.01$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.45 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 45c | 133.88$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.97 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 22c | 129.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.47 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 55c | 126.93$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 33c | 126.38$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.41 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 55c | 124.32$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 32c | 123.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.04 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 31c | 115$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 113.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.55 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 42c | 110.93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.86 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 32c | 109$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.33 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 30c | 100.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.42 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…1eb0backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.97 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 22c | 90.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 87.33$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.95 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4df…b0d4backed Yes | 30c | 86.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.92 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 56c | 86.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 58c | 86.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 30c | 83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 44c | 80.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 79.38$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 58c | 78.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 57c | 78.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed Yes | 38c | 77.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.11 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 17c | 75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.89 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 68c | 73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 55c | 72.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 70.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.18 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 68c | 70$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 67.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 67c | 66.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 42c | 65.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d8…5430backed No | 41c | 60.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 64c | 58.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 58.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 57.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 79c | 57.51$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 57.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 18c | 55.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 47c | 55.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 44c | 54.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 71c | 54.31$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…d97fbacked Yes | 55c | 52.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes | 43c | 52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 42c | 51.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 46c | 51.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed Yes | 39c | 51.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…4b33backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53d2…1118backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 61c | 49.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 29c | 46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 41c | 45.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 34c | 45.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Yes | 55c | 45.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 44.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 29c | 44.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 66c | 43.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 46c | 43.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 47c | 42.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 77c | 40.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…56b7backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb7…e027backed Yes | 51c | 39.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 45c | 39.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 63c | 37.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 51c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 33c | 36.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 70c | 35.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x136a…70e8backed No | 56c | 34.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 54c | 34.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 33.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.