Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11a73ab67f12da5b57b63ad066bd8e14c7e763a0a0e4bcf85b4093f66d199987
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 31c | 1,727$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.82 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 568.54$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.95 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 73c | 551.68$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.85 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 56c | 459.77$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.3 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 51c | 350.66$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.86 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 60c | 301.69$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.79 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 272.64$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.44 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 271.5$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.29 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 55c | 250.08$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.54 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 30c | 249.79$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.84 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 244.99$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 239.79$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 205.3$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.37 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 39c | 193.82$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.09 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 189.48$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.15 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 35c | 175.92$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.38 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 31c | 139.19$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.21 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 134.69$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.89 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 33c | 125.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 62c | 120.71$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.38 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 34c | 120.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 77c | 115.42$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 13c | 113.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 26c | 111.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 45c | 110$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 51c | 109$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.33 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 108.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 13c | 105.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 75c | 105.16$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 63c | 100.05$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 97$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 72c | 92.4$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 42c | 89.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 50c | 89.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 34c | 89.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 74c | 87.87$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 59c | 85.58$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x040b…bbc5backed Yes | 56c | 82.62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 57c | 82.39$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 63c | 79.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 45c | 79.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.51 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 45c | 74.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 43c | 73.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked Yes | 42c | 71.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 70.48$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 27c | 69.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.28 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4df…b0d4backed Yes | 75c | 66.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 66.53$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 74c | 66.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 65.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff0b…7b8fbacked Yes | 69c | 63.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 43c | 58.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x846b…63b6backed Yes | 69c | 57.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 79c | 57.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 64c | 56.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 54c | 55.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 79c | 55.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 54.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 51c | 54.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 60c | 54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 27c | 53.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4427…0174backed Yes | 69c | 50.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9141…fffbbacked Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…3dccbacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 77c | 49.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 62c | 46.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 60c | 45.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 45.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 59c | 45.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 44.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 42c | 43.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 33c | 43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 38c | 39.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 57c | 39.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 39c | 37.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 36c | 36.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 36.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 37c | 35.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 78c | 32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 75c | 31.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…56b7backed Yes | 66c | 30.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 64c | 30.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 53c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e1…1243backed No | 60c | 29.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46d5…1b8abacked Yes | 53c | 28.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…ee11backed Yes | 71c | 27.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 43c | 27.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.