MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa05c1224e662c178e2b792efca537a217197f046ae515c60969456fa170858d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Mets | 40c | 11,894$4,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,110.39 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 60c | 10,573$6,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,337.42 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets | 51c | 3,030$1,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,494.27 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 49c | 2,465$1,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,215.91 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 30c | 2,224$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.54 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2735…42ebbacked New York Mets | 53c | 1,519$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.12 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 499.99$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked New York Mets | 59c | 231.77$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.19 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 31c | 210.34$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.2 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed New York Mets | 67c | 176$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 33c | 176$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 32c | 160.13$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ca…0d75backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed New York Mets | 63c | 86.49$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 31c | 85.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 75.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 52c | 69.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 47c | 46.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 44.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed New York Mets | 63c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed New York Mets | 56c | 29.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 62c | 26.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed New York Mets | 56c | 21.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.