CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs MANA eSports (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #3 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0909a01efb40a1777f79e2f306244afdb537195b32e5a0164dfc7694698e43b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MANA eSportsof UNiTY esports, MANA eSports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd500…4568backed UNiTY esports | 46c | 2,780$1,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,278.78 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed UNiTY esports | 6c | 1,523$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.84 | 567 | 32.5%184 W · 383 L | -30.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed UNiTY esports | 28c | 1,415$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.23 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa960…9407backed UNiTY esports | 28c | 1,146$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.93 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked UNiTY esports | 48c | 953.69$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.47 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked MANA eSports | 54c | 951.63$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.24 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b39…3234backed MANA eSports | 54c | 777.92$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.84 | 313 | 45%141 W · 172 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed UNiTY esports | 12c | 767.79$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.31 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked UNiTY esports | 29c | 756.28$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.94 | 1,623 | 44.9%728 W · 895 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa5…e615backed MANA eSports | 69c | 746.6$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.85 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfffb…7a2cbacked MANA eSports | 54c | 729.29$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed UNiTY esports | 23c | 716.7$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.75 | 780 | 43.7%341 W · 439 L | -21.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed UNiTY esports | 38c | 679.09$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.44 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed UNiTY esports | 47c | 542.62$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.67 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed MANA eSports | 53c | 533.21$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.61 | 392 | 45.9%180 W · 212 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…aec3backed MANA eSports | 51c | 486.76$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.25 | 280 | 46.8%131 W · 149 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed UNiTY esports | 6c | 478$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x30c7…ac3bbacked UNiTY esports | 45c | 416.98$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.64 | 756 | 52.6%398 W · 358 L | +27.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked MANA eSports | 66c | 401.94$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.88 | 225 | 34.2%77 W · 148 L | -19.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed MANA eSports | 53c | 386.32$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.89 | 854 | 46.4%396 W · 458 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf901…5f48backed MANA eSports | 75c | 381.95$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.53 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed MANA eSports | 65c | 377.86$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.61 | 250 | 42.8%107 W · 143 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…2b32backed MANA eSports | 53c | 366.72$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.36 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed UNiTY esports | 49c | 357.83$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.9 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked MANA eSports | 79c | 325.84$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.84 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed UNiTY esports | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 771 | 46%355 W · 416 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed MANA eSports | 71c | 287.91$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.24 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…994ebacked MANA eSports | 64c | 249.64$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.64 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…bb87backed UNiTY esports | 41c | 235.32$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.46 | 138 | 57.2%79 W · 59 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked MANA eSports | 64c | 234.32$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.62 | 389 | 42.4%165 W · 224 L | -15.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…ab95backed MANA eSports | 54c | 215.69$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.22 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00a5…4d5ebacked MANA eSports | 55c | 198.72$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc7…7f02backed MANA eSports | 73c | 196.74$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.47 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked UNiTY esports | 46c | 165.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.36 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5583…1fbbbacked MANA eSports | 52c | 159.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked UNiTY esports | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 76 | 25%19 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…954ebacked MANA eSports | 54c | 140.26$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 216 | 53.2%115 W · 101 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed MANA eSports | 54c | 133.68$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.49 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…a8e5backed UNiTY esports | 30c | 123.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2c…9642backed UNiTY esports | 16c | 110.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7489…7c83backed MANA eSports | 53c | 109.81$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.61 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…b819backed MANA eSports | 55c | 106.59$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.22 | 148 | 53.4%79 W · 69 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed MANA eSports | 64c | 102.11$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ac…2a18backed MANA eSports | 54c | 101.74$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 251 | 47.8%120 W · 131 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4b…eb19backed MANA eSports | 54c | 101.13$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked UNiTY esports | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 700 | 38.9%272 W · 428 L | -29.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6722…865fbacked UNiTY esports | 49c | 98.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c1…1d6ebacked MANA eSports | 54c | 97.06$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3e…5bc0backed MANA eSports | 54c | 90.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 153 | 58.2%89 W · 64 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed UNiTY esports | 30c | 87.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed UNiTY esports | 46c | 81.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…19c1backed MANA eSports | 55c | 79.23$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3686…bd15backed MANA eSports | 51c | 76.04$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4470…c22ebacked MANA eSports | 50c | 58.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8268…8534backed UNiTY esports | 51c | 57.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8277…3409backed MANA eSports | 53c | 56.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…06d0backed MANA eSports | 77c | 53.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf2…1e5bbacked MANA eSports | 78c | 52.27$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2f…a15fbacked UNiTY esports | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 190 | 55.8%106 W · 84 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed UNiTY esports | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 84 | 13.1%11 W · 73 L | -13.9wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8945…640bbacked MANA eSports | 74c | 47.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 262 | 57.6%151 W · 111 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked MANA eSports | 75c | 47.39$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 1,315 | 51.1%672 W · 643 L | -99.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed MANA eSports | 77c | 43.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 517 | 55.9%289 W · 228 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8670…b34bbacked MANA eSports | 53c | 42.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed MANA eSports | 79c | 39.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 1,109 | 50.5%560 W · 549 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa033…4938backed MANA eSports | 51c | 38.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed MANA eSports | 77c | 33.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ff…8d60backed MANA eSports | 76c | 33.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe639…6a7abacked MANA eSports | 53c | 33.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4048…d4adbacked UNiTY esports | 46c | 33.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -8.2wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcc…e8ccbacked MANA eSports | 51c | 32.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 154 | 41.6%64 W · 90 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0136…8e5dbacked MANA eSports | 66c | 30.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked MANA eSports | 72c | 29.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 75 | 80%60 W · 15 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…1c86backed MANA eSports | 50c | 29.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2b…7b96backed UNiTY esports | 40c | 28.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed MANA eSports | 55c | 28.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 739 | 48.4%358 W · 381 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e96…f2debacked MANA eSports | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed UNiTY esports | 50c | 27.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a29…836dbacked MANA eSports | 55c | 21.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs MANA eSports (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #3 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs MANA eSports - Map 2 WinnerMANA eSports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.