Champions League · resolved market
Will Pafos FC win on 2025-09-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0bb35a28ce8e92b8a2381a50bd4c472aef9e240ca5fadf1dd27d78b6e64a316
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $137,919
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,919 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Yes | 3c | 14,414$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.84 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 3c | 12,500$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.5 | 285 | 43.9%125 W · 160 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Yes | 3c | 8,552$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.1 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…91dabacked Yes | 3c | 7,785$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 3c | 7,359$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.35 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 4c | 7,260$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.51 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Yes | 3c | 5,961$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.86 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.32per pick | 33cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 4c | 5,769$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.89 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Yes | 3c | 5,415$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.08 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…5471backed Yes | 3c | 3,970$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.04 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e73…c4ecbacked Yes | 0c | 3,614$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5532…c6dbbacked Yes | 3c | 3,588$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +181.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 4c | 2,703$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc864…97dfbacked Yes | 3c | 2,600$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,619$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 187 | 7%13 W · 174 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 3c | 1,520$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849a…7163backed Yes | 4c | 1,500$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 3c | 1,200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc47…15d4backed Yes | 4c | 1,200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +105.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 3c | 1,150$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 161 | 36%58 W · 103 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 2c | 1,111$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ed…0cedbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df1…6583backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad6a…9dbdbacked Yes | 4c | 992.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Yes | 3c | 970.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…bbadbacked Yes | 4c | 818.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb8…ed55backed Yes | 3c | 778.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e93…a140backed Yes | 6c | 703.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 3c | 700$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 4c | 600.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 174 | 26.4%46 W · 128 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 4c | 599.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 3c | 570.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 139 | 27.3%38 W · 101 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9d…9de8backed Yes | 4c | 555.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7594…1f03backed Yes | 4c | 550.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf661…d170backed Yes | 3c | 508.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 291 | 38.1%111 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 3c | 322.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 290 | 34.5%100 W · 190 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecb7…7998backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Pafos FC win on 2025-09-30?this page
- Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30?Yes won
- Will Pafos FC vs. Bayern Munich end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.