Champions League · resolved market
Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c54bb7b4b94ed15224cc69b465668a3f0a80bc3b6a909b0877d721cb3ec71b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,777,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,861,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,777,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2635…5408backed No | 12c | 879,396$109,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109,026.58 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed No | 11c | 274,323$30,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,527.17 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 12c | 44,756$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,199.64 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed No | 13c | 19,861$2,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,581.91 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…4af9backed No | 12c | 18,416$2,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,258.96 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 9c | 12,149$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.89 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad6a…9dbdbacked No | 12c | 6,742$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.05 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 12c | 6,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e73…c4ecbacked No | 8c | 5,663$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.29 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked No | 12c | 5,525$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 14c | 5,271$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738 | 210 | 37.1%78 W · 132 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8d…8189backed No | 13c | 4,455$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.23 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 13c | 3,050$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.5 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf661…d170backed No | 12c | 3,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…3aa5backed No | 12c | 2,757$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.78 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed No | 12c | 2,726$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.12 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 8c | 2,512$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.45 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed No | 13c | 2,300$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 11c | 2,056$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.11 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 6c | 1,934$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.59 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 7c | 1,576$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.07 | 203 | 43.3%88 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 12c | 1,412$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.43 | 232 | 47.4%110 W · 122 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 8c | 1,204$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.26 | 1,543 | 40.1%618 W · 925 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 12c | 1,000$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 291 | 38.1%111 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed No | 11c | 999.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 11c | 999.96$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22ed…002bbacked No | 13c | 893.85$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4c…6579backed No | 10c | 799.74$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.55 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 12c | 700$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 12c | 675.48$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.16 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…f37fbacked No | 12c | 675$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed No | 12c | 599.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5832…3dacbacked No | 13c | 576.92$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x332a…33babacked No | 12c | 458.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 8c | 442.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 389 | 35.2%137 W · 252 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked No | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 111 | 32.4%36 W · 75 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 10c | 340$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 140 | 44.3%62 W · 78 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c4…bbfbbacked No | 12c | 337.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 12c | 299.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 193 | 44%85 W · 108 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked No | 12c | 231.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 11c | 204$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 11c | 174$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 291 | 34.4%100 W · 191 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 9c | 128.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked No | 12c | 91.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d1…f7f2backed No | 12c | 87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30?this page
- Will Pafos FC vs. Bayern Munich end in a draw?No won
- Will Pafos FC win on 2025-09-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.