Tennis · resolved market
Asuncion: Franco Roncadelli vs Juan Pablo Varillas
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0c6667d74e61a21b59adcc37008619fde4297506772082fabc51ffc551b01e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Franco Roncadelliof Franco Roncadelli, Juan Pablo Varillas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,312 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Franco Roncadelli | 50c | 3,078$1,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,546 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b4…19acbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 46c | 2,184$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Franco Roncadelli | 45c | 2,165$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,187.79 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dca…72a5backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 69c | 2,143$1,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,487.49 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 50c | 1,868$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.95 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 46c | 1,805$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.76 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Franco Roncadelli | 40c | 1,534$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.86 | 507 | 31.2%158 W · 349 L | -41.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Franco Roncadelli | 33c | 1,250$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.73 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Franco Roncadelli | 30c | 1,127$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.95 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +205.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 60c | 682.4$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.56 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…adffbacked Franco Roncadelli | 48c | 662.16$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.24 | 268 | 47%126 W · 142 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b64…a351backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 68c | 550.58$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 352 | 68.2%240 W · 112 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 41c | 525.07$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.45 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Franco Roncadelli | 34c | 500$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Franco Roncadelli | 54c | 464.04$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.68 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 66c | 454.54$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 65c | 386.13$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.73 | 320 | 31.3%100 W · 220 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cff…83c4backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 66c | 300$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 276 | 64.1%177 W · 99 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Franco Roncadelli | 48c | 288.01$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.09 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Franco Roncadelli | 40c | 281.97$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.26 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Franco Roncadelli | 35c | 278.53$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.67 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Franco Roncadelli | 34c | 273.53$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.53 | 678 | 36%244 W · 434 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda74…1ab0backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 59c | 254.92$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 945 | 49.6%469 W · 476 L | -23.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Franco Roncadelli | 30c | 251.67$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.17 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 56c | 218.85$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.96 | 1,923 | 55.4%1,066 W · 857 L | -44.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Franco Roncadelli | 35c | 217.39$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.3 | 1,103 | 52.9%583 W · 520 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5271…0f95backed Franco Roncadelli | 34c | 214$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.24 | 108 | 35.2%38 W · 70 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Franco Roncadelli | 42c | 204.02$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.19 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 65c | 187.53$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.3 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 65c | 183.97$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.58 | 484 | 53.7%260 W · 224 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Franco Roncadelli | 32c | 165.45$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.71 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…f7dfbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 66c | 152$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 382 | 68.1%260 W · 122 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Franco Roncadelli | 35c | 150$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.7 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddf4…d0cfbacked Franco Roncadelli | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Franco Roncadelli | 40c | 142.5$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 1,266 | 34.2%433 W · 833 L | -43.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd88a…1eefbacked Franco Roncadelli | 34c | 112.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.01 | 544 | 34.2%186 W · 358 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Franco Roncadelli | 40c | 98.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.38 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Franco Roncadelli | 37c | 95.18$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ac…03e9backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 65c | 88.2$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.33 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe761…4f54backed Franco Roncadelli | 44c | 80.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.13 | 263 | 49.4%130 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Franco Roncadelli | 34c | 80$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…6031backed Franco Roncadelli | 47c | 76.26$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f2…692ebacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 66c | 76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 534 | 57.7%308 W · 226 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 63c | 72.75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…55e0backed Franco Roncadelli | 47c | 72.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 384 | 60.4%232 W · 152 L | +29.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Franco Roncadelli | 35c | 71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 770 | 47.9%369 W · 401 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dc…ab58backed Franco Roncadelli | 34c | 65.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Franco Roncadelli | 35c | 57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 228 | 47.4%108 W · 120 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Franco Roncadelli | 35c | 57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 292 | 44.5%130 W · 162 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Franco Roncadelli | 35c | 57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Franco Roncadelli | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Franco Roncadelli | 33c | 46.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 535 | 44.1%236 W · 299 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…f163backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 398 | 72.4%288 W · 110 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 69c | 42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 269 | 41.3%111 W · 158 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Franco Roncadelli | 36c | 40.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Franco Roncadelli | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 474 | 53.2%252 W · 222 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…3c70backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 57c | 39.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Franco Roncadelli | 35c | 39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 968 | 44.4%430 W · 538 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a7…3576backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 53c | 34.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Franco Roncadelli | 45c | 34.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 572 | 52.3%299 W · 273 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd77…ef21backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 53c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 652 | 64.1%418 W · 234 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Franco Roncadelli | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 328 | 42.7%140 W · 188 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87b9…b193backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 258 | 62.4%161 W · 97 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…bc03backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 53c | 23.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Asuncion: Franco Roncadelli vs Juan Pablo Varillasthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Roncadelli vs VarillasVarillas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.