TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,452
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,513

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,452 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under30c377.73$113 inLost-$112.8512,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under36c174.29$63 inLost-$62.6311,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over67c118$79 inWon+$38.945,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over53c116$61 inWon+$54.526,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8e6f…cb64backed Over57c70.18$40 inWon+$30.188251.2%42 W · 40 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under35c62.88$22 inLost-$22.013,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60d2…4268backed Over65c61.34$40 inWon+$21.4714753.1%78 W · 69 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fff…5495backed Over68c58.82$40 inWon+$18.823775.7%28 W · 9 L+7.3wins+0.20per pick56cpaid+31.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Over57c58$33 inWon+$24.942,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8890…cefbbacked Over67c40$27 inWon+$13.250962.9%320 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2a8…c784backed Under52c38.46$20 inLost-$203046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Over67c21.84$15 inWon+$7.2187750.4%442 W · 435 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9555…889abacked Over67c20.21$14 inWon+$6.671,00157.3%574 W · 427 L+2.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf766…9251backed Over67c15$10 inWon+$4.951,46463.5%929 W · 535 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.