MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa552d67514638af80b2f159898cc602c29be05b259526dd0c7c43205a872242b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 48c | 15,190$7,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,307.69 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 52c | 15,000$7,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,200 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 54c | 2,054$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.76 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Under | 48c | 1,741$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.68 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 75c | 1,017$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.07 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 26c | 903.68$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.88 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 73c | 843.74$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.05 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Under | 24c | 649.79$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.45 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Under | 42c | 400$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 57c | 311.79$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.34 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 59c | 300$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 26c | 245.88$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.93 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Under | 21c | 240.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 24c | 224.46$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.87 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 19c | 178.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 46c | 159.86$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.75 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 50c | 151.53$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.77 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 58c | 138.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 41c | 131.41$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.58 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 28c | 106.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 41c | 102.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed Under | 22c | 95.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 24c | 90.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 83.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 27c | 80.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 49c | 77.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Under | 26c | 75.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 59c | 67.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 76c | 61.25$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d1…a991backed Under | 54c | 61.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 59c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 41c | 53.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Under | 42c | 50.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7579…524abacked Under | 25c | 41.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 56c | 41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 30c | 39.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 65c | 36.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc547…c570backed Under | 36c | 31.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 58c | 29.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6a58backed Over | 61c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 49c | 22.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…88e7backed Over | 54c | 20.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 59c | 20.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 67c | 19.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City RoyalsHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5)Houston Astros won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.