MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20b957b7ced669d08eed9fb502e3bf69a82bc597e1ca85e0555355e9ed369649
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,861
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f0c…7ca5backed Under | 73c | 50,472$36,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,872.23 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -7.9wins | -0.26per pick | 63cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 57c | 19,586$11,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,342.2 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 25c | 13,741$3,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,356.75 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 61c | 10,871$6,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,285.62 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 29c | 7,413$2,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,262.39 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 42c | 4,344$1,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,831.36 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Under | 1c | 4,005$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 1,539$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.86 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 59c | 504.52$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 20c | 271.1$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.13 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 61c | 226.48$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.25 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf0…fdbebacked Over | 76c | 211.34$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.65 | 82 | 64.6%53 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 56c | 177.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.3 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Under | 19c | 176.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a8…c784backed Under | 54c | 156.67$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 17c | 153.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Over | 15c | 113.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.33 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +12.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 29c | 99.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Over | 60c | 88.92$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed Over | 61c | 71.63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 31c | 65.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 74c | 64.82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Over | 68c | 61.91$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 37c | 61.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 36c | 57.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e20…5cf9backed Over | 26c | 52.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 49c | 51.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…32f2backed Over | 60c | 51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 207 | 45.9%95 W · 112 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 57c | 49.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Over | 67c | 41.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 34c | 40.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Over | 57c | 30.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…2c66backed Over | 65c | 30.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 37c | 28.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…5ed1backed Over | 68c | 20.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 242 | 63.6%154 W · 88 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccf…cd14backed Over | 68c | 17.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City RoyalsHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5)Houston Astros won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.