MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc661a24f74fa33f3bb0d5bc71a069f4762168d1680d560e53ff6f7eb48b9ca6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,822
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 51c | 7,777$3,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,966.26 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 49c | 6,656$3,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,394.4 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Under | 51c | 4,833$2,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,464.66 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 39c | 2,125$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,301.19 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 1,612$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.44 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 1,479$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.42 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 49c | 1,393$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.5 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 49c | 1,224$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.48 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Over | 49c | 1,111$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.81 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Over | 49c | 1,005$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.42 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 833.29$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.73 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 49c | 731.48$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.05 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 50c | 564$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 50c | 424.7$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.57 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 61c | 395.4$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.09 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 57c | 322.21$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.8 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Under | 19c | 299.26$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 50c | 289.12$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.56 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 940 | 34.3%322 W · 618 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 58c | 183.78$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.53 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 29c | 145.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Under | 56c | 142.79$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 11c | 141.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Under | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 314 | 49.4%155 W · 159 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 63c | 112.5$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a8…c784backed Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 34c | 96.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 54c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 45c | 87.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Under | 20c | 71.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 160 | 57.5%92 W · 68 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 59c | 69.55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Over | 52c | 69.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…f3c5backed Under | 56c | 61.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 50c | 53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0887…28f3backed Under | 51c | 50.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5e…40b4backed Over | 49c | 48.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b06…9d38backed Over | 49c | 47.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b67…5347backed Over | 45c | 45.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 50c | 44.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 48c | 43.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Under | 48c | 41.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 44c | 40.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 44c | 40.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 54c | 39.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 27c | 39.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36f2…a6fabacked Over | 49c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 39c | 27.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Over | 49c | 26.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a6…252abacked Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 52c | 22.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Under | 56c | 20.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2b…2cd8backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 129 | 57.4%74 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City RoyalsHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5)Houston Astros won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.