MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15eb970f7fb28a107e8300d32a118b58c7bf8cc144a5486282e4db3d8d1de2bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Kansas City Royals, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 9,176$5,857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,856.54 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros | 36c | 6,713$2,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,282.32 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros | 37c | 6,420$2,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,056.98 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals | 63c | 4,833$3,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,069.03 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Houston Astros | 62c | 658.28$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.15 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros | 62c | 644.73$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Houston Astros | 39c | 579.59$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.55 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Kansas City Royals | 38c | 315.78$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 963 | 49%472 W · 491 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Kansas City Royals | 40c | 264$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.86 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Kansas City Royals | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Houston Astros | 40c | 243.9$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.34 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Kansas City Royals | 38c | 210.89$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.14 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Houston Astros | 52c | 206$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.34 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Kansas City Royals | 38c | 142$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…32f2backed Houston Astros | 42c | 136$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.52 | 207 | 45.9%95 W · 112 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Kansas City Royals | 38c | 124$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Kansas City Royals | 56c | 120.12$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Houston Astros | 62c | 119$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Kansas City Royals | 38c | 114.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Houston Astros | 70c | 110.8$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kansas City Royals | 32c | 105.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Kansas City Royals | 24c | 96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Houston Astros | 79c | 78$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Houston Astros | 62c | 76.3$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Houston Astros | 54c | 75.78$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Houston Astros | 41c | 74.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.89 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ad…1014backed Kansas City Royals | 38c | 57.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Kansas City Royals | 48c | 57.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Kansas City Royals | 39c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Kansas City Royals | 39c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Houston Astros | 62c | 52.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Kansas City Royals | 37c | 49.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed Houston Astros | 36c | 46.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Kansas City Royals | 53c | 45.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Kansas City Royals | 36c | 43.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Houston Astros | 57c | 40.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Kansas City Royals | 43c | 40.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Kansas City Royals | 74c | 36.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Houston Astros | 47c | 33.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Houston Astros | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfc62…ba48backed Kansas City Royals | 38c | 28.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Kansas City Royals | 55c | 27.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Houston Astros | 44c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Houston Astros | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Houston Astros | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City RoyalsHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5)Houston Astros won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.