CS2 · resolved market
Will Astralis make a roster change before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa12b0b1e22062500f532bea8b593a567822599cd1f130bb263b70b8a647fce79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,890
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,890 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 63c | 611.06$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.86 | 148 | 20.3%30 W · 118 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 449.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 37 | 5.4%2 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 31c | 271.5$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.63 | 882 | 42.3%373 W · 509 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 269.07$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.25 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | -9.5wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Yes | 36c | 250.5$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.86 | 1,157 | 48.2%558 W · 599 L | +3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 60c | 171.29$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.1 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 43c | 130$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd084…bdc9backed No | 23c | 129.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.65 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 70c | 80$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3e…5bc9backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 24c | 77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -58%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae17…fa7bbacked Yes | 49c | 73.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 58c | 71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c45…19cbbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6df…d71dbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…51d5backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…96d5backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 62cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb10d…3797backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4f…c7cabacked No | 46c | 43.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d5…406cbacked Yes | 56c | 38.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 63c | 15.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.