Serie A · resolved market
Will Cagliari Calcio vs. US Cremonese end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa12ef0e2291f884dde97476b2bb5d3aab45a2c99c50c24d7f62dc724fadca5ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,453
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,453 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 37c | 2,261$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.87 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 63c | 1,840$1,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.66 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed No | 69c | 1,693$1,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.94 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Yes | 31c | 1,546$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.3 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -8.5wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…374abacked Yes | 32c | 1,419$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.68 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 70c | 1,411$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.22 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 61c | 869.28$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.57 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f42…a8febacked No | 66c | 371.06$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.16 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefa5…b417backed No | 69c | 319.58$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.07 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86be…4490backed Yes | 31c | 309.23$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.86 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 69c | 295.44$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.59 | 419 | 54.7%229 W · 190 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 31c | 243.77$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.37 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 66c | 228.2$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.27 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 19c | 227.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.17 | 227 | 43.2%98 W · 129 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 45c | 215.1$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.7 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 18c | 196.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 262 | 41.2%108 W · 154 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 68c | 155.3$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…bd4abacked Yes | 37c | 130.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 32c | 95.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 267 | 47.2%126 W · 141 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked No | 68c | 86.75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Yes | 31c | 77.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked No | 75c | 65.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 20c | 64.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f2…2512backed Yes | 31c | 57.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…4616backed Yes | 32c | 57.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 44c | 54.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Yes | 32c | 47.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 32c | 44.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 44c | 43.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccb3…2eadbacked Yes | 44c | 43.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 62c | 43.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 199 | 52.8%105 W · 94 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…b277backed Yes | 31c | 43.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67d2…a008backed Yes | 45c | 42.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef1f…fb93backed No | 65c | 39.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed Yes | 31c | 37.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc779…a904backed No | 70c | 33.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed No | 48c | 32.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dda…8799backed No | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…c57abacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…b07ebacked No | 68c | 28.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 62c | 24.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked No | 62c | 24.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 62c | 24.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -11.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 62c | 24.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed No | 62c | 24.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked No | 62c | 23.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 76c | 23.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 223 | 73.1%163 W · 60 L | +20.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 69c | 15.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 418 | 54.8%229 W · 189 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cagliari Calcio vs. US Cremonese end in a draw?this page
- Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-04-11?Yes won
- Will US Cremonese win on 2026-04-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.