Champions League · resolved market
PSV vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa144885538281db77b81b3bc88ea29d6332d88f6ab95e26aa5adb287cde301d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,654
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,654 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 43,546$30,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,029.51 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 30c | 42,683$12,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,870.33 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…a795backed Under | 69c | 1,449$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.28 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 68c | 1,344$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.29 | 397 | 43.3%172 W · 225 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Over | 32c | 1,250$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 23c | 467.13$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.92 | 200 | 42.5%85 W · 115 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Over | 32c | 369.67$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.32 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Over | 30c | 356.42$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed Over | 30c | 333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Over | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Over | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 68c | 306.25$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 15c | 286$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 31c | 193.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Over | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 31c | 159.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 597 | 41.7%249 W · 348 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 68c | 148.75$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.28 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked Over | 30c | 134.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb207…dc03backed Over | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 35c | 115.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 152 | 36.8%56 W · 96 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc3…861abacked Over | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…017dbacked Under | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 62cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…0523backed Under | 72c | 70.85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 56cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0f…bbfebacked Under | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558c…d8ffbacked Over | 31c | 59.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Over | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Over | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad1…c06dbacked Over | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa27a…ddb9backed Over | 31c | 46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 67c | 34.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 424 | 38%161 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbd…191dbacked Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -5.1wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x78bd…a514backed Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Under | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf584…d8dabacked Under | 69c | 21.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- PSV vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5this page
- PSV vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- PSV vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5Over won
- PSV vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5Over won
- PSV vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.