Champions League · resolved market
PSV vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85096ae131a795ac80db209f9e633e5310fd4fd11b3c2e8b2748614139480c41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 22c | 29,291$6,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,482.11 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 76c | 20,014$15,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,771.54 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 10c | 14,731$1,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,497.61 | 338 | 51.5%174 W · 164 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bca…12c5backed Over | 71c | 1,427$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 10c | 1,351$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.83 | 397 | 43.3%172 W · 225 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 12c | 1,250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.96 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5df…382dbacked Under | 34c | 1,229$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 24c | 788.64$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.8 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 13c | 773.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 37c | 738.94$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.06 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 59c | 709.12$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.91 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Under | 12c | 700.2$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.68 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…2083backed Under | 38c | 587.91$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.38 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 77c | 563.63$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.63 | 382 | 53.9%206 W · 176 L | +21.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 61c | 541.43$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.56 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Over | 55c | 435.24$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.89 | 152 | 50.7%77 W · 75 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75dd…171dbacked Over | 67c | 430$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.9 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 75cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Under | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 132 | 34.1%45 W · 87 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 32c | 325.05$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.79 | 200 | 42.5%85 W · 115 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…2fe4backed Over | 56c | 321$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.83 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 67c | 223.88$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 67c | 214.93$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.93 | 74 | 56.8%42 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 68c | 205.88$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.88 | 198 | 56.6%112 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 35c | 201.48$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.52 | 343 | 42.3%145 W · 198 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa304…c4fbbacked Over | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa14…e53bbacked Over | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb7…fb2bbacked Over | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 13c | 190.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 424 | 38%161 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ce…660dbacked Under | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 12c | 184.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 434 | 27.4%119 W · 315 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Over | 78c | 162$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3f…e8a6backed Over | 75c | 106.23$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0877…0314backed Over | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326d…baa1backed Over | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68d…8874backed Over | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc3…861abacked Over | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b51…da79backed Over | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb861…37c4backed Over | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22ba…c1e1backed Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02fb…49f4backed Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 12c | 92.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 397 | 46.9%186 W · 211 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 76c | 91.23$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 223 | 56.1%125 W · 98 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x276f…bfb5backed Over | 73c | 82.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 66c | 82$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 291 | 42.3%123 W · 168 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…4287backed Under | 31c | 63.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 73c | 52.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 113 | 60.2%68 W · 45 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x646e…294dbacked Over | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +125.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 68c | 44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…5ea8backed Over | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 39c | 42.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cb…4593backed Over | 64c | 40.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…2fbfbacked Over | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86f2…0546backed Over | 76c | 31.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2285…4bf1backed Over | 65c | 30.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…f32cbacked Over | 66c | 30.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 70c | 27.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 274 | 50.7%139 W · 135 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked Over | 79c | 25.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +22%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 70c | 23.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa27a…ddb9backed Over | 77c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…9127backed Over | 78c | 20.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 601 | 36.9%222 W · 379 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…0a41backed Over | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…9725backed Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558c…d8ffbacked Over | 80c | 18.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…8ff5backed Over | 74c | 15.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60e…e94abacked Over | 74c | 13.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.43per pick | 37cpaid | +126.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- PSV vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5this page
- PSV vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- PSV vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5Over won
- PSV vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5Under won
- PSV vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.