Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa144b9f02084a6e0e7791bcb3916be0836d1c165784c59d1c7acd2b8d6e45289
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x037b…9f20backed Yes | 66c | 1,509$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.07 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 11c | 840.01$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.59 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 31c | 483.3$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ee…6e11backed Yes | 58c | 474.41$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.8 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 37c | 416.53$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.93 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 63c | 300$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…b411backed Yes | 53c | 207.35$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.65 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92b…fa4dbacked Yes | 44c | 196.45$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.96 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x754e…e92abacked Yes | 28c | 186.13$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.43 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbaec…dd15backed Yes | 42c | 183.72$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.72 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 20c | 142.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.24 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 57c | 126$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.21 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed Yes | 71c | 100.57$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 62c | 99.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed No | 38c | 81.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed No | 35c | 76.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 58c | 74.75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e25…09fbbacked Yes | 55c | 71.12$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 35c | 51.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed No | 51c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6c49…ee5dbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 58c | 48.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 54c | 48.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06b0…afd6backed Yes | 44c | 45.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…8d19backed No | 34c | 40.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6857…30b7backed Yes | 68c | 29.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 53c | 21.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 55c | 19.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 54c | 19.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee8d…c522backed Yes | 67c | 15.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 59°F or higher on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on March 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.