TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Lightning vs. Sabres

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sabresof Lightning, Sabres
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$48,473
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$50,464

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,473 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe32e…890bbacked Sabres36c15,889$5,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,172.6636242%152 W · 210 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Sabres38c8,090$3,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,024.711,40647%661 W · 745 L+58.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa61d…22f6backed Lightning64c4,668$2,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,987.5230549.2%150 W · 155 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19b8…612abacked Lightning61c4,304$2,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,625.544955.1%27 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x994e…9cf5backed Lightning64c2,982$1,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,911.5749351.3%253 W · 240 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Sabres36c2,500$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,599.9724546.1%113 W · 132 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Lightning65c1,610$1,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,046.4975155.8%419 W · 332 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb58…86a4backed Lightning64c1,598$1,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,016.1431753.9%171 W · 146 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Lightning62c1,518$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943.433,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Lightning63c1,456$917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$917.4397651.6%504 W · 472 L-3.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Lightning55c1,364$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.6892848.5%450 W · 478 L+17.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45d7…1935backed Sabres37c1,351$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.356450%32 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Lightning66c1,025$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.111,02540.8%418 W · 607 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Lightning1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca43…b369backed Lightning66c1,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66010546.7%49 W · 56 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1734…ddd4backed Lightning66c1,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6609064.4%58 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b41…e0d3backed Lightning64c1,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64024457.4%140 W · 104 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Lightning69c984$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.885464.2%548 W · 306 L+64.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Lightning63c801.3$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.821,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning62c670$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.41,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Lightning64c645.26$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.9713348.1%64 W · 69 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Lightning64c600$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38484051.4%432 W · 408 L+19.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Sabres38c531.34$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.271,63650.4%825 W · 811 L-20.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Sabres39c510$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.713754%74 W · 63 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+14.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb47e…79e0backed Lightning64c459.38$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2942055%11 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c0c…76fabacked Lightning65c440.35$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.234548.9%22 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7713…9c51backed Lightning62c406.38$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Sabres44c371.36$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.9641340%165 W · 248 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x089b…775bbacked Sabres37c358.11$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.611464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+36.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x70f8…d0d5backed Lightning74c299.47$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.6127958.8%164 W · 115 L-1.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7662…356bbacked Sabres34c297.89$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.6120649.5%102 W · 104 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Sabres37c270.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.271,03955.2%574 W · 465 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7f…d02ebacked Lightning64c257.81$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe813…5baabacked Lightning38c238.73$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-60.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked Lightning66c222.92$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.1250857.7%293 W · 215 L+0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904b…429cbacked Sabres35c200$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13050049.4%247 W · 253 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd28e…aae3backed Sabres33c187.16$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.410627.4%29 W · 77 L-8.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-22.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x463f…b2b5backed Sabres35c157.03$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.07580%4 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick40cpaid+84.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Lightning65c156.27$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.581127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.23per pick50cpaid-55%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8896…7d78backed Lightning66c151.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007071.4%50 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Lightning65c150$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.566951%341 W · 328 L-14.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5b…3fa7backed Sabres35c149.46$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.15540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x235c…8c1abacked Lightning67c149.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007256.9%41 W · 31 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0dd…e156backed Sabres35c142.71$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.762240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Sabres37c135.14$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.141,03755%570 W · 467 L-0.8wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x841f…99dfbacked Sabres35c134.4$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.36366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+76.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x72fe…e2cebacked Lightning64c120$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.823462%145 W · 89 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13c0…4cddbacked Lightning65c119$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf36…6694backed Sabres35c119$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48c1…f199backed Lightning63c115$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4854…18d7backed Sabres37c115$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd0a…67b1backed Sabres37c109$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x217b…e611backed Lightning63c109$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4f2…d880backed Sabres38c107$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd625…365bbacked Lightning62c107$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1bb…4915backed Sabres36c102$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe126…aa5abacked Lightning64c102$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Lightning66c100.29$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.1957238.1%218 W · 354 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Lightning65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6535154.1%190 W · 161 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b69…e32abacked Sabres40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607651.3%39 W · 37 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf665…8708backed Lightning65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-17.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6072…fb46backed Lightning65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655954.2%32 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f74…a238backed Lightning64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644259.5%25 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa33f…c25ebacked Lightning65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654163.4%26 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cd3…5e1abacked Sabres37c98$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+35.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x48f1…cdc5backed Lightning63c98$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x29cd…15c4backed Lightning66c96.45$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.661963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+23.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7b0…c5a9backed Sabres38c93$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+31.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xabc7…2abbbacked Lightning62c93$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e85…155ebacked Lightning66c83.11$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.85520%1 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.42per pick62cpaid-74.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1e7b…06b4backed Lightning63c83$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6862…e2fdbacked Sabres37c83$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf761…f977backed Lightning66c82.89$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.71633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-39.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c67…bd51backed Lightning66c80.38$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf9f…2a46backed Lightning66c80$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.88854.5%48 W · 40 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd807…3b7dbacked Lightning63c79$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x35d2…fc72backed Sabres37c79$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7b2…7c50backed Lightning66c75.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502665.4%17 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x165d…da41backed Lightning66c75.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.932429.2%7 W · 17 L-5.7wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-42.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x535b…0129backed Sabres37c75.11$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.321855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x640f…81cabacked Lightning62c75$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb1f…807cbacked Sabres38c75$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+31.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x956b…4065backed Lightning66c74.23$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.99425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-56.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd55c…34febacked Lightning64c72.39$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3329748.8%145 W · 152 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73f8…b4bbbacked Lightning66c71.58$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2430%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd66f…a3bbbacked Lightning65c71$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bcd…6d03backed Sabres35c71$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.15250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe27b…858fbacked Lightning65c70$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.572444.6%323 W · 401 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c00…f2bcbacked Sabres37c69.27$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.642462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+28.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2202…b157backed Sabres35c68.77$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.7633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77be…252ebacked Lightning66c68.32$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.09757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa337…9e54backed Sabres37c67.57$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5741954.4%228 W · 191 L-1.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x792b…0775backed Lightning64c66$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2420861.5%128 W · 80 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eb0…d964backed Sabres38c65$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b4f…12c4backed Lightning62c65$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Sabres35c65$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.2537738.7%146 W · 231 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4372…7e90backed Lightning62c64$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e90…21abbacked Sabres38c64$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2071…ff7abacked Sabres36c62$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+38.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x358e…baafbacked Lightning64c62$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.