Bundesliga · resolved market
Hertha BSC vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1c195e07f0e3a9d56e24d5ce39fc6a683cae1484c06d48a63b218749b5e00b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 61c | 1,894$1,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.17 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 41c | 989.29$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.7 | 124 | 60.5%75 W · 49 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 62c | 788.06$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.6 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 38c | 616.87$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.13 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 39c | 519.57$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.37 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 42c | 509.03$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.36 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 41c | 480.83$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.11 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 69c | 416.35$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.13 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9691…c6e7backed Under | 40c | 384.2$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.52 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 79c | 343.49$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.21 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 27c | 298.43$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.31 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 38c | 250$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +31%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Over | 43c | 219.79$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.01 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc3…0b17backed Over | 13c | 182.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…7eeabacked Under | 77c | 159.75$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 16c | 152.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbeb…1b63backed Over | 61c | 149.91$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.26 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…b43fbacked Over | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed Over | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed Under | 40c | 90.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.22 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 23c | 86.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 47c | 80.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 61c | 80.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Under | 66c | 75.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -5.4wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Over | 26c | 72.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 26c | 71.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 26c | 71.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 26c | 71.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 27c | 67.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 70c | 59.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 62c | 58.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 41c | 55.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5a…669bbacked Over | 61c | 54.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 29c | 49.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Over | 24c | 47.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed Over | 27c | 46.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 61c | 39.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 53c | 36.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 43c | 31.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f5…f34cbacked Over | 44c | 30.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 61c | 29.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 39c | 29.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 39c | 28.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed Under | 78c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hertha BSC vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 2.5this page
- Hertha BSC vs. Holstein Kiel: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Hertha BSC vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 1.5Under won
- Hertha BSC vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 3.5Under won
- Hertha BSC vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Hertha BSC (-1.5)Holstein Kiel won
- Spread: Holstein Kiel (-2.5)Hertha BSC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.