Bundesliga · resolved market
Hertha BSC vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97ca5d3977617648266905cdea3fd8cb399ad01f9acc9b5f6c56e7fbfbd6ef11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 44c | 2,625$1,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,460.66 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 2,313$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.95 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3790…5e8bbacked Over | 74c | 1,477$1,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093.33 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 49c | 1,155$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.31 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 48c | 780.15$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.71 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf541…ac67backed Over | 70c | 701.43$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…b43fbacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 34c | 439.45$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.95 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 56c | 425.73$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.23 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc952…3c89backed Over | 36c | 393.64$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Over | 53c | 366.68$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.34 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 52c | 365.75$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.37 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 49c | 315$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.8 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 64c | 293.7$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.97 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Over | 62c | 293.16$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.76 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +46%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Under | 40c | 290$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 45c | 275.63$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.01 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 51c | 190.31$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.06 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e7…3f3fbacked Under | 26c | 183.77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 46c | 168.85$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.43 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Over | 67c | 146.3$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.02 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 57c | 138.37$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.51 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 46c | 127.74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.08 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 34c | 113.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc3…0b17backed Over | 44c | 109.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 58c | 99.87$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.93 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 41c | 89.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.76 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…9691backed Over | 61c | 82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Over | 49c | 79.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 62c | 78.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 67c | 71.86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf751…e6dbbacked Over | 32c | 64.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 48c | 64.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 60c | 63.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 69c | 56.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 51c | 54.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…077dbacked Over | 34c | 53.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Under | 58c | 53.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 37c | 52.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8701…2075backed Over | 51c | 47.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked Over | 56c | 44.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.7wins | -0.34per pick | 52cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked Over | 56c | 43.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 30c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x503a…1e89backed Over | 53c | 29.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 46c | 29.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 43c | 26.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Over | 60c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 70c | 24.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…21ebbacked Under | 67c | 23.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c1…5981backed Under | 74c | 19.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hertha BSC vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 1.5this page
- Hertha BSC vs. Holstein Kiel: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Hertha BSC vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 2.5Under won
- Hertha BSC vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 3.5Under won
- Hertha BSC vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Hertha BSC (-1.5)Holstein Kiel won
- Spread: Holstein Kiel (-2.5)Hertha BSC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.