Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2212319cb4b335d1c0f04377bbdb608e4083671a4874725b47194ca2ac02c32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,293
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc299…b630backed Over | 52c | 755.7$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Under | 43c | 579.95$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.38 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Over | 57c | 524.2$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.62 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5038…6236backed Under | 46c | 304.89$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.25 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Under | 52c | 273.14$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.48 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeab…d961backed Over | 51c | 249.99$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…5439backed Over | 49c | 227.11$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.11 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e3…d5f4backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 166 | 41.6%69 W · 97 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fac…b89abacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 50c | 160.01$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 48c | 145$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 267 | 41.9%112 W · 155 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c09…b6ffbacked Over | 50c | 128.83$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.83 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11c…c7f7backed Over | 53c | 121.32$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.45 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Under | 50c | 116.18$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.09 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…07fdbacked Over | 54c | 101.85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 243 | 49%119 W · 124 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa77…bf95backed Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 259 | 53.3%138 W · 121 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2b…d422backed Under | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 148 | 45.9%68 W · 80 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd001…f718backed Over | 57c | 76.81$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Under | 47c | 58.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed Under | 47c | 52.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…f04ebacked Over | 57c | 43.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…0b1bbacked Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fe…1538backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4786…ff95backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…df0ebacked Over | 48c | 34.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Over | 46c | 32.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe23f…196fbacked Over | 54c | 20.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…2561backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 316 | 59.8%189 W · 127 L | +18.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague PlayoffsPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5)Team Spirit won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.