TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Spiritof PARIVISION, Team Spirit
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$854,396
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,173,338

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $854,396 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 310 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfbf3…b218backed Team Spirit44c238,725$105,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133,558.6516147.2%76 W · 85 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed PARIVISION57c203,869$116,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116,5001,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed PARIVISION53c19,461$10,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,307.0340051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed PARIVISION58c17,732$10,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,247.1615951.6%82 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked PARIVISION26c15,000$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,90089741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x525d…1f1bbacked PARIVISION0c14,400$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.42240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Team Spirit46c13,062$5,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,079.196557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Team Spirit49c13,000$6,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,63032549.8%162 W · 163 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Team Spirit50c11,400$5,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,665.0280256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked PARIVISION44c10,063$4,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,392.481,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed Team Spirit46c10,000$4,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,40026540.8%108 W · 157 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed PARIVISION11c9,455$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,065.2850832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc04e…75d9backed PARIVISION56c9,029$5,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,023.036139.3%24 W · 37 L-6.5wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-25.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Spirit48c8,798$4,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,541.961,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed PARIVISION53c7,857$4,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,164.0122644.7%101 W · 125 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed PARIVISION53c7,415$3,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,929.9941056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked PARIVISION50c7,317$3,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,677.861,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed PARIVISION46c7,088$3,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,249.261,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf054…eae7backed Team Spirit47c6,304$2,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,341.2612557.6%72 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed PARIVISION50c4,522$2,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,265.7668649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked PARIVISION49c4,479$2,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,178.7989749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed PARIVISION53c4,357$2,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,305.261,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f5…f3b5backed PARIVISION55c4,206$2,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,299.0718351.9%95 W · 88 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x182b…f3d3backed PARIVISION50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0004548.9%22 W · 23 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked PARIVISION48c4,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,919.9936547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed PARIVISION4c3,597$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.7296245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0ae…ee26backed PARIVISION2c3,375$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.01150%0 W · 15 L-3.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Spirit70c3,274$2,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968.811,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa557…6e77backed Team Spirit44c3,165$1,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,762.769850%49 W · 49 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Team Spirit62c3,091$1,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,161.8686659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf24…7d4abacked Team Spirit43c3,000$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7105149%25 W · 26 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9a11…eb9dbacked PARIVISION21c2,926$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60016945%76 W · 93 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Team Spirit45c2,820$1,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,550.7795342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4d12backed Team Spirit55c2,716$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,216.4835062.6%219 W · 131 L+44.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xf7e3…22cbbacked PARIVISION57c2,572$1,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,466.061030%3 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick54cpaid-47.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked PARIVISION13c2,533$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.6630155.5%167 W · 134 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf394…cdb1backed Team Spirit43c2,346$1,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,336.953036.7%11 W · 19 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Team Spirit48c2,300$1,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,207.4960349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Team Spirit51c2,288$1,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,120.961456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed PARIVISION13c2,257$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.1635758%207 W · 150 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked PARIVISION39c2,250$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.4979859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0867…3023backed Team Spirit46c2,198$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,178.73560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Team Spirit44c2,135$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,184.738728.7%25 W · 62 L-8.5wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-38.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8976…7367backed Team Spirit41c2,056$843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,213.043351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed PARIVISION12c2,002$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.2445951.9%238 W · 221 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed Team Spirit45c2,000$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,10021146.9%99 W · 112 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked PARIVISION33c1,931$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63548539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed PARIVISION52c1,930$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00061745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked PARIVISION52c1,800$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93677256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3be1…39c9backed PARIVISION14c1,780$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.53425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Team Spirit41c1,620$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$954.865441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked Team Spirit63c1,600$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59241055.6%228 W · 182 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked PARIVISION18c1,589$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.63225%8 W · 24 L-4.8wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-57.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb665…ed24backed PARIVISION13c1,560$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.668540%34 W · 51 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked PARIVISION8c1,555$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.750347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked Team Spirit48c1,507$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.6432652.1%170 W · 156 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed PARIVISION51c1,506$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.8330336.6%111 W · 192 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed PARIVISION54c1,500$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.9960552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed PARIVISION3c1,500$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.16132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked PARIVISION48c1,463$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.022,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked PARIVISION54c1,448$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.5743049.1%211 W · 219 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x930b…0223backed PARIVISION55c1,406$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.8723459%138 W · 96 L+0.6wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cd0…08f6backed PARIVISION60c1,383$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.316147.5%29 W · 32 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf67d…c986backed Team Spirit49c1,310$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.2939042.1%164 W · 226 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04d3…cdacbacked Team Spirit42c1,300$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7546631.8%21 W · 45 L-7.2wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-28.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked PARIVISION11c1,250$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.554058.9%318 W · 222 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked Team Spirit48c1,210$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.1237945.9%174 W · 205 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cb…80d0backed Team Spirit73c1,209$883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.122853.1%121 W · 107 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd65…5726backed Team Spirit49c1,201$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.0811753%62 W · 55 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3304…8313backed Team Spirit48c1,193$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.358050%40 W · 40 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6373…a0b7backed PARIVISION10c1,184$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.4314825%37 W · 111 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-2.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Team Spirit42c1,184$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.560646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3df…9945backed Team Spirit43c1,159$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$658.718459.5%50 W · 34 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked PARIVISION29c1,138$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.621,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed PARIVISION43c1,100$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47356852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a53…1b12backed PARIVISION9c1,089$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005234.6%18 W · 34 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-32.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x495d…68d8backed Team Spirit48c1,042$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.677255.6%40 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed Team Spirit41c1,024$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.3915545.2%70 W · 85 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked PARIVISION24c1,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.271,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Team Spirit46c1,000$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.4720145.3%91 W · 110 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed PARIVISION20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20079959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed PARIVISION53c986.79$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52262650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39a7…bcb7backed Team Spirit50c960$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48010949.5%54 W · 55 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb41b…36bebacked PARIVISION15c949.98$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.592138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ebe…5e6fbacked Team Spirit47c900$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47725752.1%134 W · 123 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked PARIVISION54c894.17$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.7461057.9%353 W · 257 L+2.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bcc…b4fabacked PARIVISION17c867.79$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15116959.2%100 W · 69 L+14.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+11.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5dc4…0705backed PARIVISION3c860$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1229.1%2 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-57.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x787f…d40cbacked Team Spirit41c836$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.246448.4%31 W · 33 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2662…3f84backed Team Spirit62c808.06$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.0614562.1%90 W · 55 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked PARIVISION19c791.74$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.841,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Team Spirit46c782.61$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.6172035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Team Spirit41c756.28$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.213842.1%16 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+23.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed PARIVISION9c753.49$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6657449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3cf6…0cbdbacked Team Spirit41c753$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.273743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf93…0d84backed PARIVISION52c749.99$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.497553.3%40 W · 35 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed Team Spirit57c747.54$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.5436343.3%157 W · 206 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe077…f5eebacked Team Spirit44c732$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.9213442.5%57 W · 77 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ff7…bf32backed Team Spirit53c704.75$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.725359.3%150 W · 103 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6cb1…1002backed Team Spirit44c704.19$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.787251.4%37 W · 35 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.