Mls · resolved market
Austin FC vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2268815971b35a832cc8bfa129d77b79c678680da81d8b64cae627688b02f3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 16c | 1,853$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.68 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16e5…6373backed Over | 62c | 810$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 78c | 718.92$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.29 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e8…88a4backed Over | 76c | 699.99$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.5 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 29c | 479.18$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.12 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 40c | 437$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.33 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 68c | 434.63$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.56 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Over | 73c | 410.96$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.96 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Over | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 63c | 266.04$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.57 | 89 | 71.9%64 W · 25 L | +17.2wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9f84…00edbacked Over | 80c | 232.98$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 38c | 220$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.35 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 45c | 207.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4691…2a8abacked Over | 73c | 202.4$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.65 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 36c | 174.66$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.88 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d970backed Over | 68c | 148$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Under | 14c | 146.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 17c | 128.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked Under | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 37c | 59.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 22c | 48.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 54c | 44.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…52c9backed Under | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Over | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 74c | 26.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Over | 72c | 18.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +8.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb676…2dbbbacked Over | 77c | 17.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9e…f53abacked Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aab…2a65backed Over | 74c | 14.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Austin FC vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 1.5this page
- Austin FC vs. Sporting Kansas City: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Austin FC vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 2.5Over won
- Austin FC vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 3.5Under won
- Austin FC vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Austin FC (-1.5)Sporting Kansas City won
- Spread: Austin FC (-2.5)Sporting Kansas City won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.