TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Austin FC vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$112,041
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$114,348

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,041 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb22…6478backed Over46c92,141$42,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,120.2315647.4%74 W · 82 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Under54c35,788$19,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,462.371650%8 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Under54c10,768$5,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,953.2823858%138 W · 100 L-0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Under55c8,858$4,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,967.251030%3 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-44.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Under55c7,668$4,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,437.5613553.3%72 W · 63 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e4e…1dfcbacked Under54c4,790$2,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,180.341275%9 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+51%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked Under55c4,064$2,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,828.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Under54c2,278$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,047.958563.5%54 W · 31 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Under54c2,278$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,047.9519560%117 W · 78 L+10.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under54c2,065$1,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$946.871,27048%610 W · 660 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Over30c1,752$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.5798945.4%449 W · 540 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed Under54c1,600$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73617258.1%100 W · 72 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28dc…a1f2backed Under56c1,400$784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6168547.1%40 W · 45 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Under55c1,273$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.342263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+23.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x374a…03edbacked Under54c1,200$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55212263.1%77 W · 45 L+10.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+16.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2444…4252backed Under54c1,200$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.88742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under55c1,195$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.493,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed Under55c1,176$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.385257.7%30 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over24c1,128$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.751,44436.8%532 W · 912 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Under54c1,000$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4605147.1%24 W · 27 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed Under54c700$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32212661.1%77 W · 49 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe94c…1edebacked Under54c634.8$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.012755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed Under54c600$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27615858.2%92 W · 66 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40d0…4415backed Under54c592$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.3211055.5%61 W · 49 L-0.5wins0.00per pick56cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under57c581.97$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.7946156.2%259 W · 202 L+13.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1513…831abacked Under77c516.99$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.993053.3%16 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed Under54c500$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23014359.4%85 W · 58 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over41c499.98$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.998661.6%53 W · 33 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+19.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x30da…a11dbacked Over43c466.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+20.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x47c7…cac7backed Under54c460$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.69457.4%54 W · 40 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Under58c432.07$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.319052.2%47 W · 43 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed Under54c400$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18416960.9%103 W · 66 L+11.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed Under54c400$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18414257.7%82 W · 60 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Under76c394.74$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.7412751.2%65 W · 62 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over35c333.44$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.371,26245.2%571 W · 691 L-28.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under54c300$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13815060%90 W · 60 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Over44c300$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1323043.3%13 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed Under54c300$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13813158.8%77 W · 54 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under54c284$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.7191553%485 W · 430 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Under54c277.78$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.786341.3%26 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-24.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed Under54c260$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.611759%69 W · 48 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Under54c260$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.612162%75 W · 46 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4691…2a8abacked Over41c246.89$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick54cpaid-59.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x014c…38ccbacked Over42c236.9$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.58853.4%47 W · 41 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under54c231$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.2655750.1%279 W · 278 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under54c231$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.2668550.5%346 W · 339 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Under54c211.22$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.1619056.3%107 W · 83 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over42c207.42$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.126625.8%17 W · 49 L-8.1wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf0ca…117abacked Over41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.5811244.6%50 W · 62 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8508…c22fbacked Under54c194.44$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.441963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+26.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd52c…6c59backed Under55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.821844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x234b…f36dbacked Under54c179.12$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.310755.1%59 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb630…e38ebacked Over46c178.36$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Over37c174.9$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.0220849.5%103 W · 105 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed Under54c160$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.614459.7%86 W · 58 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked Under54c156$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.7614660.3%88 W · 58 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under54c156$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.7614459.7%86 W · 58 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ed3…0a22backed Under54c140$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.416955.6%94 W · 75 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under64c136.82$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.7978344.4%348 W · 435 L-30.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x338b…97b3backed Over42c118.54$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over44c109.56$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5668150.8%346 W · 335 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over22c109.26$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5219347.2%91 W · 102 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Over12c106.52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0947240.7%192 W · 280 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459858.2%57 W · 41 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+19.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f81…2bb7backed Under54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4615259.9%91 W · 61 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04a5…d093backed Under54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4613461.2%82 W · 52 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd59…2e2fbacked Under54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4613560.7%82 W · 53 L+7.9wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under68c99.24$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.1380249.8%399 W · 403 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Over33c95.37$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4236051.9%187 W · 173 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd77d…b01cbacked Under55c90.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.913450%17 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcce5…7eb2backed Under55c90.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.913551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb223…3772backed Under55c89.97$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.47366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Under54c74$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.045056%28 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under56c72$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.491,30151.2%666 W · 635 L-19.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6af…b5efbacked Over42c71.35$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010950.5%55 W · 54 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Under54c55.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.563046.7%14 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1a7…ace4backed Over33c55$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9816159.6%96 W · 65 L+18.4wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+11.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd4ee…e425backed Over44c54.55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244639.1%18 W · 28 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+16.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04ed…5694backed Under55c54.55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.55580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+72.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe743…ce0fbacked Under55c53.57$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.29650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe06f…6743backed Under64c51.75$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.63366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Under58c51$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6642947.1%202 W · 227 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under65c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.584100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+74.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x21db…2a42backed Over43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.55431.5%17 W · 37 L-5.8wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-26.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under54c49.44$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7410655.7%59 W · 47 L-0.2wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0f9…92e3backed Under54c45$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.74163.4%26 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over23c44.12$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.171,00946.2%466 W · 543 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8acc…cc29backed Under54c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.48469%58 W · 26 L+11.0wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+24.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Under70c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1836247.2%171 W · 191 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc263…1e83backed Under54c37.59$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.293250%16 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x09d2…26aebacked Under55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.362100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec7…ed98backed Under55c36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+29.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed Over37c33.9$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.571323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.25per pick48cpaid-46.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9ae4…e4a2backed Under54c32.11$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.771942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-29.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xab92…19e5backed Under54c31.89$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.672552%13 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under62c31.24$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9192346.6%430 W · 493 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Under55c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.517751.4%91 W · 86 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.813557.8%78 W · 57 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f9e…9aa0backed Under54c27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf58…2bf4backed Under55c25.55$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.514151.2%21 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.