TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Austin FC vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$76,361
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$77,573

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,361 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb22…6478backed Over68c60,997$41,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,564.0115647.4%74 W · 82 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Under32c19,240$6,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,156.82166.7%14 W · 7 L+3.7wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+32.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under33c14,527$4,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,787.353,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under32c5,422$1,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,743.331,44436.8%532 W · 912 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under32c4,507$1,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,432.3126345.2%119 W · 144 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Under32c3,897$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2506341.3%26 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-24.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Under32c3,140$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.3742947.1%202 W · 227 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked Under63c2,836$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8004852.1%25 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over69c2,000$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6208661.6%53 W · 33 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+19.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under33c1,936$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.541,27048%610 W · 660 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Under32c1,462$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.684949%24 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under51c1,254$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.0698945.4%449 W · 540 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2efa…8a01backed Over53c1,066$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.1475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+36.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x422c…9840backed Over55c999.95$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.985042%21 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under32c968.36$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.9997146.1%448 W · 523 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Under53c944.92$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5049052.2%47 W · 43 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under47c777.86$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.1946156.2%259 W · 202 L+13.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under33c770.38$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.461,30151.2%666 W · 635 L-19.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc978…706bbacked Under32c750$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2401163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Under32c597.48$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.477037.1%26 W · 44 L-11.4wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-35.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xd318…6f23backed Under3c511.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over30c465$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.2548344.9%217 W · 266 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under32c415.22$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.8710655.7%59 W · 47 L-0.2wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under60c409.13$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.8578344.4%348 W · 435 L-30.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ca…117abacked Over50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20011244.6%50 W · 62 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Under32c354.5$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.4424859.3%147 W · 101 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under32c329$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.2891553%485 W · 430 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30da…a11dbacked Over65c307.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.691241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+20.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Over51c299.97$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.983043.3%13 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc263…1e83backed Under32c286.23$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.843250%16 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over34c283.46$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.611,26245.2%571 W · 691 L-28.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Under32c271.5$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.8819056.3%107 W · 83 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Under32c246$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.725851.7%30 W · 28 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x984c…e508backed Under67c181.58$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.63250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over38c172.64$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.643658.3%21 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Under47c160$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.27140.8%29 W · 42 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab92…19e5backed Under32c150.41$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.352552%13 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under67c148.48$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7587154.6%476 W · 395 L+34.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0576…6232backed Under31c141.63$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.918129.6%24 W · 57 L-10.9wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-32.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x23bc…5487backed Under32c140.63$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456553.8%35 W · 30 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Over33c135.05$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.8692346.6%430 W · 493 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39f6…abe1backed Over64c135$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.877974.7%59 W · 20 L+10.7wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+26.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed Under32c128.91$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.253622.2%8 W · 28 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-36.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6af…b5efbacked Over65c123.08$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.0810950.5%55 W · 54 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x234b…f36dbacked Under32c121.53$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8910755.1%59 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8e1…9bc1backed Under32c114.23$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.552065%13 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under33c106.9$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5568150.8%346 W · 335 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329858.2%57 W · 41 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+19.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0def…4ddbbacked Over38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ae4…e4a2backed Under32c97.71$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.481942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-29.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Under32c93.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303046.7%14 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c9b…e74abacked Over56c89.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.3815638.5%60 W · 96 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over41c86$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.6930444.1%134 W · 170 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc057…804abacked Under32c84.63$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.08450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb630…e38ebacked Under32c83.22$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.63450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under62c82.59$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4310046%46 W · 54 L-0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Over41c80.95$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0820849.5%103 W · 105 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x014c…38ccbacked Over65c76.54$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.798853.4%47 W · 41 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26f2…1761backed Over69c72.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.461136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.25per pick61cpaid-43.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa1a7…ace4backed Over48c70$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.2416159.6%96 W · 65 L+18.4wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+11.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2b81…88e7backed Under32c70$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.450%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under33c67.73$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.434753.2%25 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb94…6ef0backed Under75c66.83$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501478.6%11 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick69cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Over47c63.78$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.83231.3%10 W · 22 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-16.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x418b…a741backed Over56c63.48$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.769758.8%57 W · 40 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Over33c61.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.1536051.9%187 W · 173 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed Under67c60.78$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.722737%10 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over27c59.86$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.6519172.3%138 W · 53 L+36.8wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+41.7%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xe697…708fbacked Under32c54.63$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4816656.6%94 W · 72 L-0.6wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Under35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.518651.6%96 W · 90 L+11.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Under33c49$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.967953.2%42 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f9…29a9backed Under32c48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.366155.7%34 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Over36c47$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.1880249.8%399 W · 403 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffac…d469backed Over51c43.98$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.775263.5%33 W · 19 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over49c43.4$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2896756.8%549 W · 418 L+73.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Over39c41.71$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4747240.7%192 W · 280 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe29c…a31dbacked Over43c37.51$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.476149.2%30 W · 31 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Under48c36.44$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6336247.2%171 W · 191 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Over59c35$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3516853.6%90 W · 78 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Under33c34.08$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2715458.4%90 W · 64 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Under50c33.27$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.61741.2%7 W · 10 L-3.6wins-0.21per pick63cpaid-33.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over43c33$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9219347.2%91 W · 102 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78d7…291dbacked Over69c32$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.921338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over69c24.97$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7473438.1%280 W · 454 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b7a…52c9backed Under52c24.22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.561947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16fe…9496backed Over56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.85641.1%23 W · 33 L-5.2wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-13.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.