TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Spread: Austin FC (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sporting Kansas Cityof Austin FC, Sporting Kansas City
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$141,345
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$144,535

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,345 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb22…6478backed Austin FC42c122,806$51,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,595.415647.4%74 W · 82 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Sporting Kansas City58c48,300$27,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,466.2923858%138 W · 100 L-0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Sporting Kansas City58c23,554$13,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,960.893,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Sporting Kansas City57c8,225$4,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,536.752181%17 W · 4 L+6.2wins+0.29per pick52cpaid+55.4%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Sporting Kansas City59c6,587$3,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,698.061,27048%610 W · 660 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Sporting Kansas City59c4,199$2,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,726.731850%9 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Sporting Kansas City59c3,703$2,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,506.6398945.4%449 W · 540 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Sporting Kansas City57c3,229$1,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,388.3813553.3%72 W · 63 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Sporting Kansas City58c2,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84011854.2%64 W · 54 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Sporting Kansas City60c2,000$1,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81053046.4%246 W · 284 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Sporting Kansas City58c1,806$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.2442947.1%202 W · 227 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed Sporting Kansas City60c1,600$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64017258.1%100 W · 72 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x374a…03edbacked Sporting Kansas City60c1,200$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48012263.1%77 W · 45 L+10.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+16.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Sporting Kansas City59c1,132$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.816341.3%26 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-24.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Sporting Kansas City62c1,023$637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.6846156.2%259 W · 202 L+13.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Sporting Kansas City57c1,012$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.165056%28 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Sporting Kansas City59c939$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.541,44436.8%532 W · 912 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Sporting Kansas City58c921$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.0513948.9%68 W · 71 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Austin FC40c887.84$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.2887154.6%476 W · 395 L+34.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Sporting Kansas City60c765.64$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.552254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Sporting Kansas City58c762.99$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.0891553%485 W · 430 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Sporting Kansas City58c723.39$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.5310655.7%59 W · 47 L-0.2wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Sporting Kansas City57c701.75$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.759854.1%53 W · 45 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed Sporting Kansas City60c700$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28012661.1%77 W · 49 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed Sporting Kansas City60c600$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24015858.2%92 W · 66 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe94c…1edebacked Sporting Kansas City60c571.32$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.532755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc978…706bbacked Sporting Kansas City58c549.62$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.621163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed Sporting Kansas City60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20014359.4%85 W · 58 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x47c7…cac7backed Sporting Kansas City60c460$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1849457.4%54 W · 40 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed Sporting Kansas City60c400$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16016960.9%103 W · 66 L+11.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed Sporting Kansas City60c400$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16014257.7%82 W · 60 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Sporting Kansas City61c393.02$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.613043.3%13 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Austin FC39c348.46$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.299957.6%57 W · 42 L+13.1wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+40.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf429…969ebacked Sporting Kansas City60c333.33$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.332040%8 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Sporting Kansas City61c329.48$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.2947240.7%192 W · 280 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Sporting Kansas City60c314.39$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.7597146.1%448 W · 523 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Sporting Kansas City62c306.1$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.761,26245.2%571 W · 691 L-28.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Sporting Kansas City60c300$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12015060%90 W · 60 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed Sporting Kansas City60c300$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12013158.8%77 W · 54 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Sporting Kansas City60c297.23$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.892763%17 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba1b…82fdbacked Austin FC34c294.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Sporting Kansas City58c261$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.931,30151.2%666 W · 635 L-19.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe062…4907backed Sporting Kansas City59c260$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.61471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.23per pick48cpaid+64.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed Sporting Kansas City60c260$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10411759%69 W · 48 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Sporting Kansas City60c260$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10412162%75 W · 46 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc52…dfcebacked Sporting Kansas City60c250$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+22.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc0d…8bcabacked Austin FC44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003842.1%16 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Sporting Kansas City61c219$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.0168550.5%346 W · 339 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Sporting Kansas City58c218.98$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.8855750.1%279 W · 278 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x234b…f36dbacked Sporting Kansas City57c197.65$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.2710755.1%59 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Sporting Kansas City64c194.54$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.0578344.4%348 W · 435 L-30.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Sporting Kansas City61c190.24$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.7124859.3%147 W · 101 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked Sporting Kansas City57c187.1$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.451752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23bc…5487backed Sporting Kansas City58c180.73$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.816553.8%35 W · 30 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Sporting Kansas City57c160$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.85851.7%30 W · 28 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed Sporting Kansas City60c160$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6414459.7%86 W · 58 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked Sporting Kansas City60c156$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.414660.3%88 W · 58 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6fa1…6edbbacked Sporting Kansas City60c156$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.414459.7%86 W · 58 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbe8…1141backed Sporting Kansas City57c140.18$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.28683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick64cpaid+52.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Austin FC40c140$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5419347.2%91 W · 102 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ed3…0a22backed Sporting Kansas City60c140$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5616955.6%94 W · 75 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1a7…ace4backed Austin FC40c139.97$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4316159.6%96 W · 65 L+18.4wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+11.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfa5b…9b61backed Austin FC37c135.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-30.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x51f0…3651backed Austin FC39c133.6$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6464…99adbacked Austin FC39c133.6$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Sporting Kansas City57c133$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.194949%24 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c76…862dbacked Sporting Kansas City60c125$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504055%22 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66df…7ea5backed Sporting Kansas City59c122.03$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.03966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed Sporting Kansas City59c120.97$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.63622.2%8 W · 28 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-36.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6d2…d67bbacked Austin FC41c109.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.130957%176 W · 133 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94a5…4eb8backed Austin FC40c107.29$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.925133.3%17 W · 34 L-6.8wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-30.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc263…1e83backed Sporting Kansas City59c106$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.183250%16 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed Sporting Kansas City58c102.39$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.259654.2%52 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Sporting Kansas City57c100.53$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.2310848.1%52 W · 56 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f81…2bb7backed Sporting Kansas City60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4015259.9%91 W · 61 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04a5…d093backed Sporting Kansas City60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4013461.2%82 W · 52 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd59…2e2fbacked Sporting Kansas City60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4013560.7%82 W · 53 L+7.9wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Austin FC34c80.96$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.544350.6%224 W · 219 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f9…29a9backed Sporting Kansas City58c80$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.646155.7%34 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Austin FC35c73.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4724920.9%52 W · 197 L-19.4wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-30.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5f43…3a74backed Sporting Kansas City59c65$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.656065%39 W · 21 L+5.7wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9ae4…e4a2backed Sporting Kansas City59c63.64$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.991942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-29.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Sporting Kansas City60c60$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.313557.8%78 W · 57 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Austin FC41c59$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.191,00946.2%466 W · 543 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Sporting Kansas City57c58.86$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.0215458.4%90 W · 64 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb25…03e5backed Sporting Kansas City68c58.49$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.72475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+34.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Sporting Kansas City62c52.74$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0419056.3%107 W · 83 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x04ed…5694backed Sporting Kansas City57c52.63$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.63580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+72.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x78d7…291dbacked Austin FC44c52$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.881338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Sporting Kansas City60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203046.7%14 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Austin FC41c49.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1610957.8%63 W · 46 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb630…e38ebacked Sporting Kansas City58c47.82$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.32450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab92…19e5backed Sporting Kansas City59c47.79$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.552552%13 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde25…c0a5backed Sporting Kansas City62c47.42$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.923246.9%15 W · 17 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb66c…a0f5backed Sporting Kansas City60c46.84$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.848257.3%47 W · 35 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x19a4…a65bbacked Sporting Kansas City80c46.13$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.28862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f9…92e3backed Sporting Kansas City60c45$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184163.4%26 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41d8…7233backed Sporting Kansas City57c43.75$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.811163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e73…3f4ebacked Sporting Kansas City59c43.13$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.574753.2%25 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea10…a070backed Sporting Kansas City57c40.29$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.32450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.