Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa23bc626208825e6b387274cf60fdf415d9da0434d84b3fa7687a9ce54f0d58c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,326
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 1,715$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.5 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 59c | 239.34$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.99 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 24c | 210.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 75c | 196$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 188.72$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.13 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 80c | 183.56$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.71 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 167.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 157.4$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 145.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4323…f818backed Yes | 23c | 131.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 129.3$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.16 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 62c | 120.52$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 25c | 119.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb7…68d4backed Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 37c | 115.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 67c | 110.94$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 67c | 110$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 73c | 108.56$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 68c | 106.69$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 44c | 98.66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 23c | 93.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 16c | 93.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 86.95$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 25c | 83.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 33c | 83.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 32c | 83.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 83.4$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 19c | 80$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 23c | 79.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.07 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 64c | 77.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…53fabacked Yes | 21c | 74.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3b…52afbacked Yes | 27c | 73.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 79c | 68.86$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85db…1423backed No | 71c | 67.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 28c | 61.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 59.06$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20c0…22b4backed Yes | 23c | 58.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 79c | 57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 28c | 53.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2837…fd84backed Yes | 66c | 52.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e92…ad5bbacked No | 59c | 46.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 32c | 44.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddcc…d167backed Yes | 42c | 38.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fef…816bbacked No | 80c | 36.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb60…9784backed No | 65c | 36.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71a1…a26bbacked No | 67c | 34.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x259f…3294backed Yes | 34c | 34.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 38c | 33.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 72c | 33.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 37c | 32.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35d…5289backed Yes | 33c | 31.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 30.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce46…a9afbacked No | 67c | 29.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 66c | 26.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 79c | 26.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 25.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 80c | 25.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 76c | 23.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 76c | 20.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf45f…dbfdbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 80c | 18.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 70c | 18.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked No | 74c | 18.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…55bfbacked No | 80c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 83 | 85.5%71 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 78cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 5°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 7°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on July 2?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.