TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on July 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,871
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,326

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,871 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes27c1,715$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.58,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No59c239.34$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.992,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes24c210.02$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.11,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No75c196$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.2410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No63c188.72$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.136,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6424…2718backed No80c183.56$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7142754.6%233 W · 194 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes24c167.1$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.349,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No36c157.4$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.2112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No70c145.99$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.88,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4323…f818backed Yes23c131.03$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.45313.2%7 W · 46 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-57%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No71c129.3$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.165,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No62c120.52$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.8297570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes25c119.78$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3064446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdb7…68d4backed Yes42c119.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-51.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f98…e397backed Yes37c115.29$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3833154.4%180 W · 151 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No67c110.94$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.942,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed No67c110$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.1426067.3%175 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked No73c108.56$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2979040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51dd…4053backed No68c106.69$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.3740352.4%211 W · 192 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac24…576ebacked Yes44c98.66$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5623334.3%80 W · 153 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed Yes23c93.95$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6677555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes16c93.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.091,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No76c86.95$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.873,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes25c83.68$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1754335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes33c83.65$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3294552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes32c83.65$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.653,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No69c83.4$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.994,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No19c80$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No23c79.07$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.074,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No64c77.69$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.768867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f43…53fabacked Yes21c74.41$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.72224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-82.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f3b…52afbacked Yes27c73.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-32.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed No79c68.86$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.651,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85db…1423backed No71c67.19$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.196666.7%44 W · 22 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+31.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes28c61.77$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1581848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No76c59.06$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.069,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20c0…22b4backed Yes23c58.3$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.413633.3%12 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No79c57$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.971,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No69c56$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.343,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes28c53.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.981,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2837…fd84backed Yes66c52.81$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.14161%25 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x451a…3b01backed No77c51.95$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9517858.4%104 W · 74 L-0.6wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.191,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed No58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2135344.5%157 W · 196 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No80c48$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.61,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e92…ad5bbacked No59c46.27$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.97742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick60cpaid-36.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes32c44.45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.221,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No73c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.83,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes32c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8486952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No74c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.41,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddcc…d167backed Yes42c38.79$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.29520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick58cpaid-71.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2fef…816bbacked No80c36.86$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.374452.3%23 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-21.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb60…9784backed No65c36.8$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.88966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No56c35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.44,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71a1…a26bbacked No67c34.64$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.391464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+21.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x259f…3294backed Yes34c34.41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.71346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes38c33.93$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8157948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No72c33.18$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2765353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1fa…9611backed No62c32.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2615555.5%86 W · 69 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes37c32.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.932,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No58c32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.444,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa35d…5289backed Yes33c31.11$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.21172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick58cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No79c30.9$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.493,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd3f…5d84backed No75c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.580275.7%607 W · 195 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce46…a9afbacked No67c29.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.821172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick58cpaid+20.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7c6…2b25backed No66c26.27$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9332958.7%193 W · 136 L+17.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No79c26.11$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4888973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No66c25.69$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No80c25.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.091,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No76c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8b6…3b38backed No80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547175.6%356 W · 115 L+2.1wins0.00per pick75cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No76c23.52$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6442976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No76c21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.044,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.771,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No70c21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.31,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No76c20.83$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7d8…a8cebacked No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.49361.3%57 W · 36 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+17.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf45f…dbfdbacked No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick65cpaid+28.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No80c18.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.761,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e16…7f14backed No70c18.17$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4522064.5%142 W · 78 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x789d…af8bbacked No74c18.01$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.769060%54 W · 36 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3164…3c65backed No76c18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.3244465.3%290 W · 154 L+0.8wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb07…5b0fbacked No63c16$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9212060%72 W · 48 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecc6…55bfbacked No80c13.75$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.758385.5%71 W · 12 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick78cpaid+9.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8ad3…e651backed No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.533351.7%172 W · 161 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.