Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c68f6c2cb522f9b35efc36410c3659dad88683ff5a91ba52ac4e6ac8d93601f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,831
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,831 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 54c | 420.38$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.94 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 323.28$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.52 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 54c | 271.93$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.84 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 32c | 227.21$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.64 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 170.87$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.1 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 59c | 163.6$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.74 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 39c | 154.83$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.75 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 147.74$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 56c | 136.66$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.92 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9d…e9f4backed Yes | 40c | 134.72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.41 | 33 | 90.9%30 W · 3 L | +10.4wins | +0.32per pick | 59cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 129.3$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.29 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 46c | 116.75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 106.89$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…1443backed No | 53c | 99.97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.98 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2837…fd84backed No | 65c | 99.45$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.54 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 45c | 99.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.29 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 41c | 98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 90.09$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…0f3ebacked Yes | 13c | 85.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.04 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 77c | 83.58$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 53c | 82.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 30c | 67.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 59c | 60.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…1c49backed Yes | 43c | 57.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4323…f818backed Yes | 37c | 57.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 53c | 57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 55c | 52.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 45c | 51.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 130 | 10.8%14 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 58c | 49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 46.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 46c | 43.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 46c | 43.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 46c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 58c | 42.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 53c | 42.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed Yes | 47c | 42.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 45c | 40.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f7…8058backed No | 74c | 40.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 48c | 39.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 58c | 37.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 39c | 36.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 58c | 36.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 37c | 32.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…5a54backed No | 51c | 31.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 65c | 31.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 47c | 30.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 37c | 28.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 41c | 28.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 54c | 27.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 48c | 26.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…a381backed No | 54c | 26.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 61c | 25.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 65c | 24.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 62c | 21.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 62c | 20.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 65c | 20.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d98…b354backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 52c | 19.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 66c | 19.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed No | 57c | 18.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 60c | 17.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 66c | 15.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 5°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 7°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.