NHL · resolved market
KHL: Severstal Cherepovets vs. Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa24351c9c3bf70160eb5b16d51d651aa7a634c90bdaefd883d9265fdb356ef8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Severstal Cherepovetsof Severstal Cherepovets, Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,384
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,384 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Severstal Cherepovets | 65c | 1,192$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.68 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk | 39c | 700.63$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.33 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…5d81backed Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk | 35c | 687.88$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Severstal Cherepovets | 61c | 529.6$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.35 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +10.5wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x29b1…f737backed Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk | 40c | 504.3$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk | 38c | 434.11$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.06 | 519 | 49.5%257 W · 262 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Severstal Cherepovets | 60c | 219$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.6 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk | 35c | 179.02$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.66 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk | 33c | 161.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 179 | 40.2%72 W · 107 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk | 38c | 155.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…5df2backed Severstal Cherepovets | 62c | 148.28$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.67 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk | 34c | 125.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…ecbfbacked Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Severstal Cherepovets | 62c | 103$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa34…6628backed Severstal Cherepovets | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk | 38c | 64.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Severstal Cherepovets | 60c | 62.35$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 315 | 40.3%127 W · 188 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…4692backed Severstal Cherepovets | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 279 | 47.3%132 W · 147 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk | 34c | 44.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk | 37c | 38.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Severstal Cherepovets | 34c | 35.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…1afdbacked Severstal Cherepovets | 67c | 32.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 177 | 65.5%116 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk | 39c | 30.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Severstal Cherepovets | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Severstal Cherepovets | 58c | 27.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07a6…5638backed Severstal Cherepovets | 76c | 26.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 91 | 68.1%62 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.