TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

KHL: Severstal Cherepovets vs. Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Severstal Cherepovetsof Severstal Cherepovets, Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,384
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,305

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,384 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x29c0…efaabacked Severstal Cherepovets65c1,192$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.681,63650.4%825 W · 811 L-20.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk39c700.63$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.3310848.1%52 W · 56 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe630…5d81backed Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk35c687.88$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-59%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x07dd…0876backed Severstal Cherepovets61c529.6$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.355671.4%40 W · 16 L+10.5wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+38.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x29b1…f737backed Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk40c504.3$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20028447.9%136 W · 148 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk38c434.11$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.0651949.5%257 W · 262 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Severstal Cherepovets60c219$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.683149.5%411 W · 420 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk35c179.02$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6633447.9%160 W · 174 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdad…9eaebacked Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk33c161.8$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2917940.2%72 W · 107 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22cc…8aeabacked Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk38c155.97$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.94946.9%23 W · 26 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcc81…5df2backed Severstal Cherepovets62c148.28$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.679552.6%50 W · 45 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk34c125.69$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7316955.6%94 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x752e…ecbfbacked Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk35c114.29$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403767.6%25 W · 12 L+5.6wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3c15…45a0backed Severstal Cherepovets62c103$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.948050%40 W · 40 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3692444.5%411 W · 513 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa34…6628backed Severstal Cherepovets65c76.92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk38c64.49$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.65333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Severstal Cherepovets60c62.35$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9431540.3%127 W · 188 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15c5…4692backed Severstal Cherepovets58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.827947.3%132 W · 147 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa6f7…1f33backed Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk34c44.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk37c38.91$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3174054.5%403 W · 337 L+22.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Severstal Cherepovets34c35.17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.213030%9 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid+28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3ac…1afdbacked Severstal Cherepovets67c32.69$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8817765.5%116 W · 61 L+0.4wins0.00per pick65cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa923…6704backed Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk39c30.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.893444.1%15 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9555…889abacked Severstal Cherepovets62c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.442558.6%249 W · 176 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Severstal Cherepovets58c27.69$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.636533.8%22 W · 43 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x07a6…5638backed Severstal Cherepovets76c26.1$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.369168.1%62 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick68cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.