Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2806452ee85a0566b8e926af9e590b0e291031929261579630a2c5d6937c405
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 6c | 726.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 2,304 | 27%622 W · 1,682 L | -41.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 43c | 710.5$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.98 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 28c | 699.05$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.05 | 264 | 33.7%89 W · 175 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6e…7f49backed Yes | 19c | 373.1$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.21 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 25c | 298.04$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.2 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 61c | 246.64$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.59 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed Yes | 31c | 239.17$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.95 | 136 | 30.1%41 W · 95 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 204.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 74c | 200$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.71 | 247 | 68.8%170 W · 77 L | +25.2wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes | 43c | 180.15$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.24 | 184 | 68.5%126 W · 58 L | +24.8wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 24c | 169.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.78 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 154.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.44 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 38c | 153.42$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 3,126 | 61.8%1,931 W · 1,195 L | -30.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…bd11backed Yes | 30c | 141.71$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.7 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 15c | 134.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.02 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 17c | 130.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 1,014 | 51.6%523 W · 491 L | +108.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 126.45$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.64 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 62c | 124.09$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.45 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 16c | 123.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.51 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 118.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.37 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 38c | 118.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.05 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 77c | 100.56$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 92.65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 91.21$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 90$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.72 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 13c | 88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 3,835 | 61.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 69c | 85.24$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 14c | 82.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.23 | 1,523 | 15.4%234 W · 1,289 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 74c | 82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 493 | 32.9%162 W · 331 L | +23.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 51c | 81.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed Yes | 23c | 79.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.69 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 63c | 73$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 68c | 72.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 14c | 72.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 71.12$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 50c | 70.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 80c | 69.64$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.71 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 15c | 68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.95 | 1,065 | 35.1%374 W · 691 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 77c | 67.78$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda89…6215backed Yes | 69c | 67.28$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 29c | 65.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…acf6backed Yes | 20c | 61.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 34c | 53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…7712backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 42c | 48.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 53c | 42.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 62c | 42.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0059…808abacked Yes | 26c | 38.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…7107backed Yes | 66c | 37.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 30c | 37.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ad…c303backed Yes | 70c | 36.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +4.8wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc037…1814backed No | 39c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed Yes | 78c | 29.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 63c | 27.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 2,628 | 54%1,419 W · 1,209 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 49c | 26.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 61c | 24.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 75c | 24.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 58c | 24.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 1,417 | 65.2%924 W · 493 L | +59.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 79c | 20.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,300 | 54.2%704 W · 596 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 78c | 19.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabcc…8ac7backed No | 72c | 15.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…7307backed Yes | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 60 | 68.3%41 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.