Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0793315535ceef1179183c4fe96a15edf51cfac6e3132c66cb8151624887820d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,929
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 27c | 813.12$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.57 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 32c | 716.9$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 710.5$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.71 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 245.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 12c | 180.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 58c | 170.94$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 154.94$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.07 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed Yes | 13c | 141.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 136 | 30.1%41 W · 95 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 128.51$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 43c | 128$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.62 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 111.23$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 106.85$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.83 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…bd11backed Yes | 56c | 99.35$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.04 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 14c | 93.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda89…6215backed Yes | 39c | 89.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 65c | 77.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 36c | 71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed Yes | 44c | 69.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 67c | 67.78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes | 38c | 59.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 61c | 59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…7712backed Yes | 36c | 56.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 25c | 54.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 70c | 52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c2…5c65backed No | 61c | 49.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 65cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 49.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 48.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 48.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 43c | 46.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 42.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 24c | 41.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 42c | 41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 63c | 40.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 38.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 38c | 37.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 78c | 34.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 39c | 33.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 61c | 32.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 62c | 31.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 39c | 29.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 40c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 64c | 27.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 25.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 62c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 64c | 23.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 79c | 22.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 65c | 21.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 71c | 20.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 76c | 18.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 61c | 17.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 63c | 16.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.