TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Memphis Tigers vs. Utah State Aggies

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Utah State Aggiesof Memphis Tigers, Utah State Aggies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,981
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,618

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,981 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb9e5…eb6abacked Memphis Tigers12c1,438$176 inLost-$176.4215733.1%52 W · 105 L-10.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-25.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x76d3…7034backed Memphis Tigers18c1,205$215 inLost-$215.26366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+19.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Memphis Tigers11c1,194$127 inLost-$127.222,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Memphis Tigers4c896.7$34 inLost-$34.034,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Memphis Tigers8c860.28$73 inLost-$73.045,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8b8b…4a65backed Memphis Tigers12c824.92$100 inLost-$100175.9%1 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.20per pick25cpaid-89.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Memphis Tigers16c464$75 inLost-$74.6739742.8%170 W · 227 L-15.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe622…ea5ebacked Memphis Tigers11c440$48 inLost-$48.437142.6%158 W · 213 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Memphis Tigers10c371$37 inLost-$37.123948.1%115 W · 124 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf084…4b0ebacked Memphis Tigers5c300$15 inLost-$15230%0 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee28…8266backed Memphis Tigers10c290.91$29 inLost-$29.0916436%59 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-12.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Memphis Tigers12c252.61$29 inLost-$29.182,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Memphis Tigers10c200$20 inLost-$202,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08c1…7fbebacked Memphis Tigers22c199.39$44 inLost-$43.8715240.1%61 W · 91 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Memphis Tigers13c199$26 inLost-$25.871238.1%10 W · 113 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6212…4eb3backed Memphis Tigers11c181.82$20 inLost-$206936.2%25 W · 44 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa0b…9672backed Memphis Tigers9c116.18$10 inLost-$10.468517.6%15 W · 70 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Memphis Tigers11c100$11 inLost-$111,31733.6%443 W · 874 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaafa…3471backed Memphis Tigers10c100$10 inLost-$1025230.6%77 W · 175 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Memphis Tigers17c96.01$16 inLost-$16.1819641.8%82 W · 114 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4336…28a7backed Utah State Aggies65c54$35 inWon+$18.6613464.2%86 W · 48 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x22cc…8aeabacked Memphis Tigers34c44.77$15 inLost-$15.2222730.4%69 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.