South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Lanús vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2c33e08fde6290dfd42773842f87eef348514d880c4f2bc8495a622ee7fbfbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,533
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0dbe…9013backed Over | 36c | 1,741$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.46 | 185 | 43.2%80 W · 105 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 6c | 1,454$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.05 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 8c | 924.23$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.94 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 64c | 600$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 7c | 502.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 78c | 467.44$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.36 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 23c | 380.46$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.89 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…e756backed Under | 61c | 319.67$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.44 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Under | 76c | 262.3$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.3 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28b1…dc74backed Over | 35c | 250.86$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 64c | 234.37$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.37 | 278 | 55.4%154 W · 124 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 38c | 202.59$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.05 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Under | 65c | 160.35$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.37 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3d…d65dbacked Under | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 65c | 148$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Over | 24c | 100.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x026d…47edbacked Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 65c | 84.72$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 64c | 83.78$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd170…a9d9backed Over | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd1…2647backed Over | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6544…4b74backed Over | 28c | 44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Under | 65c | 42.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8613…2f76backed Over | 35c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 64c | 38.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Under | 65c | 35.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 35c | 35.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5caa…4831backed Over | 36c | 27.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f53…d5abbacked Under | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 64c | 23.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1603…913bbacked Under | 61c | 22.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Under | 67c | 18.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a89…24b1backed Under | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed Under | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 73c | 16.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Lanús vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 2.5this page
- CA Lanús vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Lanús vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Lanús vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- CA Lanús vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: CA Lanús O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Lanús vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Lanús vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Lanús vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Lanús vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: AA Argentinos Juniors (-1.5)CA Lanús won
- Spread: AA Argentinos Juniors (-2.5)CA Lanús won
- Spread: CA Lanús (-1.5)AA Argentinos Juniors won
- Spread: CA Lanús (-2.5)AA Argentinos Juniors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.