South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Lanús vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77f81fd7c108cfca2c03004743fe54027ae9eae3ee2cd7cc6bd5ffdce9e5887a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 61c | 4,817$2,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,936.87 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 59c | 4,155$2,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,701.1 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 43c | 3,262$1,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,873.38 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Under | 39c | 2,074$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.04 | 668 | 37.1%248 W · 420 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 35c | 1,809$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,183.27 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…50d1backed Under | 39c | 1,026$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Under | 68c | 999.97$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.98 | 213 | 66.7%142 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4a…e7cabacked Under | 62c | 806.53$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 18c | 733.39$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.38 | 191 | 35.1%67 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 48c | 616.12$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.78 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 68c | 536.97$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.16 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 38c | 500$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 194 | 47.9%93 W · 101 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…9013backed Over | 63c | 498.18$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.33 | 185 | 43.2%80 W · 105 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 61c | 222.26$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.12 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…74d2backed Over | 33c | 209.24$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0e…8ba9backed Over | 31c | 151.61$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafcf…72f6backed Under | 44c | 149.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x536f…7ebabacked Under | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 38c | 92.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6544…4b74backed Over | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Over | 39c | 70.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.37 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 62c | 69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 61c | 65.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 56c | 64.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 43c | 63.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 20c | 59.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 60c | 59.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 164 | 49.4%81 W · 83 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 42c | 56.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeda…8e35backed Under | 63c | 46.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…c83bbacked Over | 25c | 43.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 21cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Over | 61c | 40.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 37c | 39.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Over | 62c | 38.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 56c | 36.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23f8…2c9abacked Over | 56c | 35.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d39…ba51backed Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 58c | 27.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 54c | 26.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed Over | 63c | 23.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed Under | 51c | 22.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 61c | 17.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 232 | 53%123 W · 109 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 74c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Lanús vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 1.5this page
- CA Lanús vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Lanús vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Lanús vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- CA Lanús vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: CA Lanús O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Lanús vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Lanús vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Lanús vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Lanús vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: AA Argentinos Juniors (-1.5)CA Lanús won
- Spread: AA Argentinos Juniors (-2.5)CA Lanús won
- Spread: CA Lanús (-1.5)AA Argentinos Juniors won
- Spread: CA Lanús (-2.5)AA Argentinos Juniors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.