College Football · resolved market
Spread: Utah (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2f53aa6c4ba91e3dfdae0ff08680482930c40b581508b11a5ab86b14f75745d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Utahof Utah, Cincinnati
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Cincinnati | 49c | 28,639$14,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,033.22 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Utah | 51c | 27,205$13,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,317.54 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Utah | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000 | 272 | 46%125 W · 147 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Cincinnati | 50c | 13,733$6,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,866.5 | 166 | 35.5%59 W · 107 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Cincinnati | 48c | 8,464$4,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,066.01 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Utah | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Utah | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cincinnati | 50c | 4,760$2,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,356.78 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0531…549fbacked Cincinnati | 50c | 1,808$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -41%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86ac…29cfbacked Utah | 50c | 1,488$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aed…abfebacked Utah | 50c | 1,487$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c6…e285backed Cincinnati | 50c | 1,342$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a92…4a9ebacked Utah | 50c | 1,237$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21fd…9b47backed Cincinnati | 50c | 1,233$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…a42bbacked Cincinnati | 50c | 1,232$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c58…d703backed Utah | 50c | 1,136$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…2d63backed Utah | 50c | 1,086$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked Cincinnati | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb0…884cbacked Utah | 50c | 1,025$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f72…8fe7backed Cincinnati | 50c | 1,021$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…4388backed Cincinnati | 50c | 1,017$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e8…f661backed Cincinnati | 50c | 1,012$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +50%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Cincinnati | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9195…72a4backed Utah | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58bc…a883backed Cincinnati | 48c | 970$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.6 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…fdfdbacked Utah | 50c | 936$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45ef…ee8abacked Cincinnati | 50c | 924$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb76…0985backed Cincinnati | 50c | 888$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9b…2e9dbacked Cincinnati | 50c | 874$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8af…fd2fbacked Utah | 50c | 872$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Utah | 52c | 800$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f54…4846backed Utah | 50c | 788$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3447…9bffbacked Utah | 50c | 773$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18f9…d815backed Cincinnati | 50c | 755$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66bf…ed34backed Cincinnati | 50c | 674$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…7463backed Utah | 50c | 654$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc010…3d6ebacked Utah | 50c | 654$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…2cb3backed Utah | 50c | 644$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Utah | 50c | 444$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Cincinnati | 51c | 250$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Utah | 51c | 247.52$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.28 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Utah | 49c | 231.42$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.36 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Utah | 49c | 205$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…b3e8backed Cincinnati | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…c716backed Cincinnati | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700c…9368backed Utah | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Cincinnati | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe51…c0d3backed Utah | 51c | 186.27$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.27 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Cincinnati | 48c | 175.59$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.28 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4e…05e0backed Cincinnati | 51c | 116.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Cincinnati | 48c | 111.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Utah | 50c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Cincinnati | 51c | 97.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0e…3311backed Cincinnati | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Cincinnati | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Cincinnati | 49c | 76.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Cincinnati | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Utah | 48c | 67.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Cincinnati | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa794…e7d8backed Utah | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa18d…b16abacked Utah | 51c | 27.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +109.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…0a46backed Utah | 51c | 27.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Cincinnati | 48c | 26.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99f6…f838backed Utah | 52c | 26.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…ec0dbacked Cincinnati | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3914…2103backed Cincinnati | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Utah (-10.5)this page
- Cincinnati vs. UtahUtah won
- Cincinnati vs. Utah: 1H O/U 27.5Over won
- Cincinnati vs. Utah: O/U 54.5Over won
- Cincinnati vs. Utah: O/U 55.5Over won
- Cincinnati vs. Utah: O/U 57.5Over won
- O/U 56.5Over won
- Spread: Utah (-11.5)Utah won
- Spread: Utah (-8.5)Utah won
- Spread: Utah (-9.5)Utah won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.