MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa312e47461ba23afbc6ade593fd889362ba215322b9771b8a56a6f29e6fcbf81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa75e…96ebbacked San Diego Padres | 44c | 4,276$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Chicago Cubs | 60c | 3,841$2,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,553.93 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed San Diego Padres | 40c | 920.9$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.57 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked San Diego Padres | 28c | 696.91$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.13 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee9d…63e1backed Chicago Cubs | 62c | 645.16$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Chicago Cubs | 60c | 584.32$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.91 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Chicago Cubs | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago Cubs | 66c | 410$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.69 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 400$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked San Diego Padres | 38c | 333.75$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.83 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked San Diego Padres | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked San Diego Padres | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed San Diego Padres | 10c | 224.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked San Diego Padres | 25c | 221$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed San Diego Padres | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…97d0backed Chicago Cubs | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71e0…1e8abacked San Diego Padres | 41c | 195.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.35 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 131.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed San Diego Padres | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed San Diego Padres | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Chicago Cubs | 48c | 50.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed San Diego Padres | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 204 | 50.5%103 W · 101 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed Chicago Cubs | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Chicago Cubs | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f2…32f5backed San Diego Padres | 46c | 45.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Chicago Cubs | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Chicago Cubs | 62c | 35.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Chicago Cubs | 60c | 26.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Chicago Cubs | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.