Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs Grind Back (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa314980ef1c46c4f7416cbd933e2e51bcd2b766df69d15cc2a34d8cad4985034
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- OGof OG, Grind Back
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed Grind Back | 52c | 1,073$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.68 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x953e…79ffbacked OG | 46c | 440$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.4 | 280 | 50%140 W · 140 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb67…fd46backed Grind Back | 80c | 300$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Grind Back | 59c | 300$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed OG | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…9d0bbacked OG | 56c | 280.89$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.59 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Grind Back | 39c | 280$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…a307backed OG | 47c | 234.04$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.04 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312c…0f42backed OG | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 372 | 52.7%196 W · 176 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed OG | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked OG | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4e…5973backed OG | 27c | 156.56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.29 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed OG | 39c | 109.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.68 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed OG | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 503 | 53.9%271 W · 232 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc70…8be9backed Grind Back | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 253 | 54.5%138 W · 115 L | +13.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad9…0eaebacked OG | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…f04ebacked OG | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3296…c186backed OG | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe24b…5142backed Grind Back | 53c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +8.6wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked OG | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3537…3b51backed Grind Back | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f98…e226backed OG | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Grind Back | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs Grind Back (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier PlayoffsOG won
- Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 WinnerGrind Back won
- Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 WinnerOG won
- Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 WinnerOG won
- Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 WinnerOG won
- Game Handicap: OG (-2.5) vs Grind Back (+2.5)Grind Back won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.